PGR
The Progressive Corporation Financial Services - Insurance - Property & Casualty Investor Relations →
The Progressive Corporation (PGR) closed at $199.31 as of 2026-05-01, trading 10.4% above its 200-week moving average of $180.54. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 11.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 44, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.37 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2358 weeks of data, PGR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times. On average, these episodes lasted 49 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PGR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +4.6%.
With a market cap of $116.5 billion, PGR is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 37.9%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 3.6x book value.
Over the past 33.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PGR would have grown to $14564, compared to $2973 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.1% vs 10.7% for the index — confirming PGR as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 37.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PGR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PGR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 4 historical episodes, buying PGR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -2.0% after 12 months (median +1.0%), compared to -2.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -4.5% vs -32.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PGR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
PGR has crossed below its 200-week MA 5 times with an average 1-year return of +4.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1988 | Feb 1989 | 14 | 15.8% | +68.8% | +60028.0% |
| Sep 1999 | Apr 2001 | 83 | 50.5% | -20.7% | +4749.8% |
| Feb 2007 | Apr 2007 | 7 | 7.2% | -10.8% | +1583.5% |
| May 2007 | May 2007 | 1 | 1.4% | -7.4% | +1583.5% |
| Jul 2007 | Mar 2010 | 140 | 49.3% | -6.9% | +1609.8% |
| Average | 49 | — | +4.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PGR below its 200-week moving average?
No. The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is currently 10.4% above its 200-week moving average of $180.54. It would need to fall to $180.54 to cross below the line.
What is PGR's 200-week moving average price?
The Progressive Corporation's 200-week moving average is $180.54 as of 2026-05-01. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PGR drops below its 200-week moving average?
PGR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +4.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 49 weeks on average.
Is PGR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PGR as of 2026-05-01: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 44. Return on equity is 37.9%. Price-to-book is 3.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PGR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.3 years, $100 invested in PGR would have grown to $14564, compared to $2973 for the S&P 500. That's 16.1% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. PGR has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does PGR pay a dividend?
Yes. The Progressive Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 697.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-01