PGR
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The Progressive Corporation (PGR) closed at $213.48 as of 2026-09-18, trading 12.0% above its 200-week moving average of $190.57. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 14.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 56, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.13 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2378 weeks of data, PGR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times. On average, these episodes lasted 49 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PGR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +4.6%.
With a market cap of $123.9 billion, PGR is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 12.2%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 34.9%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 3.6x book value.
PGR passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PGR would have grown to $15606, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.1% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming PGR as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 37.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PGR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PGR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 4 historical episodes, buying PGR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -2.0% after 12 months (median +1.0%), compared to -2.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -4.5% vs -32.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PGR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices PGR would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where PGR's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-14.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $199.21 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $213.59 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $230.22 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $249.66 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $272.68 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | $4.84 | $4.85 | +0.3% |
| 2026-04-15 | $4.88 | $4.96 | +1.6% |
| 2026-01-28 | $4.43 | $4.67 | +5.3% |
| 2025-10-15 | $5.05 | $4.05 | -19.7% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from PGR's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
PGR has crossed below its 200-week MA 5 times with an average 1-year return of +4.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1988 | Feb 1989 | 14 | 15.8% | +68.8% | +64331.4% |
| Sep 1999 | Apr 2001 | 83 | 50.5% | -20.7% | +5096.9% |
| Feb 2007 | Apr 2007 | 7 | 7.2% | -10.8% | +1704.0% |
| May 2007 | May 2007 | 1 | 1.4% | -7.4% | +1704.0% |
| Jul 2007 | Mar 2010 | 140 | 49.3% | -6.9% | +1732.2% |
| Average | 49 | — | +4.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PGR below its 200-week moving average?
No. The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is currently 12.0% above its 200-week moving average of $190.57. It would need to fall to $190.57 to cross below the line.
What is PGR's 200-week moving average price?
The Progressive Corporation's 200-week moving average is $190.57 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PGR drops below its 200-week moving average?
PGR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +4.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 49 weeks on average.
Is PGR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PGR as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 56. Free cash flow yield is 12.2%. Return on equity is 34.9%. Price-to-book is 3.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PGR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in PGR would have grown to $15606, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 16.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. PGR has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does PGR pay a dividend?
Yes. The Progressive Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 19.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18