PGR
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The Progressive Corporation (PGR) closed at $202.29 as of 2026-02-02, trading 15.8% above its 200-week moving average of $174.62. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 19.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 54, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 2346 weeks of data, PGR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times. On average, these episodes lasted 49 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PGR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +4.6%.
With a market cap of $118.6 billion, PGR is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 40.4%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 3.9x book value.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PGR would have grown to $14774, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.3% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming PGR as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 25.4% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Growth of $100: PGR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PGR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 4 historical episodes, buying PGR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -2.0% after 12 months (median +1.0%), compared to -2.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -4.5% vs -32.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PGR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
PGR has crossed below its 200-week MA 5 times with an average 1-year return of +4.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1988 | Feb 1989 | 14 | 15.8% | +68.8% | +60895.5% |
| Sep 1999 | Apr 2001 | 83 | 50.5% | -20.7% | +4819.8% |
| Feb 2007 | Apr 2007 | 7 | 7.2% | -10.8% | +1607.8% |
| May 2007 | May 2007 | 1 | 1.4% | -7.4% | +1607.8% |
| Jul 2007 | Mar 2010 | 140 | 49.3% | -6.9% | +1634.5% |
| Average | 49 | — | +4.6% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02