PFSI
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PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. (PFSI) closed at $75.41 as of 2026-07-31, trading 14.0% below its 200-week moving average of $87.72. This places PFSI in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -3.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 27, PFSI is in oversold territory.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.1x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 642 weeks of data, PFSI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times. On average, these episodes lasted 9 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PFSI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +40.6%.
With a market cap of $3.9 billion, PFSI is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 12.3%. The stock trades at 0.9x book value.
Share count has increased 4.1% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 12.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PFSI would have grown to $531, compared to $488 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.5% vs 13.7% for the index — confirming PFSI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PFSI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PFSI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying PFSI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +40.2% after 12 months (median +20.0%), compared to +18.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +48.8% vs +32.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PFSI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. PFSI currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from PFSI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
PFSI has crossed below its 200-week MA 14 times with an average 1-year return of +40.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2014 | Dec 2014 | 35 | 16.4% | +6.3% | +409.7% |
| Dec 2014 | Jan 2015 | 1 | 0.1% | -10.3% | +388.6% |
| Mar 2015 | Apr 2015 | 2 | 3.6% | -33.2% | +404.2% |
| Aug 2015 | Sep 2016 | 55 | 34.8% | -4.0% | +391.1% |
| Oct 2016 | Oct 2016 | 3 | 1.1% | +10.8% | +415.0% |
| Dec 2016 | Dec 2016 | 1 | 0.2% | +32.3% | +410.0% |
| Jan 2017 | Jan 2017 | 2 | 2.0% | +45.3% | +419.5% |
| Mar 2017 | Apr 2017 | 3 | 2.0% | +40.4% | +419.5% |
| May 2017 | May 2017 | 1 | 1.5% | +22.1% | +421.1% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 18.5% | +251.8% | +354.7% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 2.9% | +68.6% | +92.4% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 3 | 3.7% | +57.3% | +83.8% |
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | 1 | 0.1% | N/A | -10.1% |
| May 2026 | Ongoing | 12+ | 14.0% | Ongoing | -11.7% |
| Average | 9 | — | +40.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PFSI below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. (PFSI) is trading 14.0% below its 200-week moving average of $87.72. The current price is $75.41.
What is PFSI's 200-week moving average price?
PennyMac Financial Services, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $87.72 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PFSI drops below its 200-week moving average?
PFSI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +40.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 9 weeks on average.
Is PFSI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PFSI as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 27 (oversold). Return on equity is 12.3%. Price-to-book is 0.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PFSI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 12.3 years, $100 invested in PFSI would have grown to $531, compared to $488 for the S&P 500. That's 14.5% annualized vs 13.7% for the index. PFSI has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does PFSI pay a dividend?
Yes. PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 139.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31