PFSI
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PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. (PFSI) closed at $70.36 as of 2026-09-11, trading 20.2% below its 200-week moving average of $88.19. This places PFSI in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -16.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 33, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.08 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 648 weeks of data, PFSI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times. On average, these episodes lasted 9 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PFSI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +40.6%.
With a market cap of $3.7 billion, PFSI is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 9.4%. The stock trades at 0.8x book value.
Share count has increased 4.1% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 12.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PFSI would have grown to $498, compared to $499 for the S&P 500. PFSI has returned 13.7% annualized vs 13.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PFSI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PFSI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying PFSI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +40.2% after 12 months (median +20.0%), compared to +18.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +48.8% vs +32.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PFSI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. PFSI currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | $2.15 | $1.39 | -35.2% |
| 2026-05-05 | $2.14 | $2.19 | +2.3% |
| 2026-01-29 | $3.23 | $1.96 | -39.3% |
| 2025-10-21 | $2.98 | $3.43 | +15.1% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from PFSI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
PFSI has crossed below its 200-week MA 14 times with an average 1-year return of +40.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2014 | Dec 2014 | 35 | 16.4% | +6.3% | +377.4% |
| Dec 2014 | Jan 2015 | 1 | 0.1% | -10.3% | +357.6% |
| Mar 2015 | Apr 2015 | 2 | 3.6% | -33.2% | +372.2% |
| Aug 2015 | Sep 2016 | 55 | 34.8% | -4.0% | +360.0% |
| Oct 2016 | Oct 2016 | 3 | 1.1% | +10.8% | +382.4% |
| Dec 2016 | Dec 2016 | 1 | 0.2% | +32.3% | +377.7% |
| Jan 2017 | Jan 2017 | 2 | 2.0% | +45.3% | +386.6% |
| Mar 2017 | Apr 2017 | 3 | 2.0% | +40.4% | +386.6% |
| May 2017 | May 2017 | 1 | 1.5% | +22.1% | +388.1% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 18.5% | +251.8% | +325.9% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 2.9% | +68.6% | +80.2% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 3 | 3.7% | +57.3% | +72.1% |
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | 1 | 0.1% | N/A | -15.8% |
| May 2026 | Ongoing | 18+ | 20.2% | Ongoing | -17.3% |
| Average | 9 | — | +40.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PFSI below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-11, PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. (PFSI) is trading 20.2% below its 200-week moving average of $88.19. The current price is $70.36.
What is PFSI's 200-week moving average price?
PennyMac Financial Services, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $88.19 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PFSI drops below its 200-week moving average?
PFSI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +40.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 9 weeks on average.
Is PFSI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PFSI as of 2026-09-11: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 33. Return on equity is 9.4%. Price-to-book is 0.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PFSI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 12.5 years, $100 invested in PFSI would have grown to $498, compared to $499 for the S&P 500. That's 13.7% annualized vs 13.7% for the index. PFSI has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does PFSI pay a dividend?
Yes. PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 172.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11