PFG
Principal Financial Group, Inc. Financial Services - Asset Management Investor Relations →
Principal Financial Group, Inc. (PFG) closed at $113.70 as of 2026-07-31, trading 45.8% above its 200-week moving average of $77.99. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 40.7% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 73, PFG is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 2.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.93 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1244 weeks of data, PFG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PFG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +30.7%.
With a market cap of $24.3 billion, PFG is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.3%. Return on equity stands at 12.9%. The stock trades at 2.1x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 10.7% over the past three years.
Over the past 23.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PFG would have grown to $896, compared to $1409 for the S&P 500. PFG has returned 9.6% annualized vs 11.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 13.2% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PFG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PFG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying PFG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +28.2% after 12 months (median +51.0%), compared to +15.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +51.2% vs +30.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PFG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices PFG would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where PFG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $84.68 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $90.56 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $97.31 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $105.14 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $114.35 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from PFG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
PFG has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +30.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2002 | Oct 2002 | 2 | 5.8% | +29.6% | +795.9% |
| Jun 2008 | Jan 2012 | 189 | 87.3% | -53.8% | +316.1% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 3 | 4.9% | +67.4% | +692.3% |
| Jan 2016 | Apr 2016 | 14 | 13.1% | +51.8% | +318.2% |
| Jun 2016 | Jul 2016 | 3 | 4.1% | +61.4% | +312.4% |
| Oct 2018 | Feb 2019 | 17 | 19.0% | +23.6% | +233.5% |
| Mar 2019 | Apr 2019 | 4 | 3.2% | -11.6% | +200.8% |
| Feb 2020 | Nov 2020 | 39 | 51.0% | +33.7% | +224.1% |
| Dec 2020 | Jan 2021 | 4 | 3.6% | +53.2% | +184.0% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 1 | 0.7% | +51.9% | +181.1% |
| Average | 28 | — | +30.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PFG below its 200-week moving average?
No. Principal Financial Group, Inc. (PFG) is currently 45.8% above its 200-week moving average of $77.99. It would need to fall to $77.99 to cross below the line.
What is PFG's 200-week moving average price?
Principal Financial Group, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $77.99 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PFG drops below its 200-week moving average?
PFG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +30.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 28 weeks on average.
Is PFG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PFG as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 73 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 4.3%. Return on equity is 12.9%. Price-to-book is 2.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PFG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 23.9 years, $100 invested in PFG would have grown to $896, compared to $1409 for the S&P 500. That's 9.6% annualized vs 11.7% for the index. PFG has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does PFG pay a dividend?
Yes. Principal Financial Group, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 295.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31