PFE
Pfizer Inc. Healthcare - Pharmaceuticals Investor Relations →
Pfizer Inc. (PFE) closed at $25.21 as of 2026-06-19, trading 7.5% below its 200-week moving average of $27.25. This places PFE in the deep value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -4.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 44, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.88 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2772 weeks of data, PFE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times. On average, these episodes lasted 40 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PFE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.8%.
With a market cap of $143.7 billion, PFE is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 8.6%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 8.3%. The stock trades at 1.6x book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PFE would have grown to $1466, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. PFE has returned 8.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -29.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PFE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PFE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying PFE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -1.0% after 12 months (median -13.0%), compared to +10.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 33% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +20.6% vs +19.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PFE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices PFE would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where PFE's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $24.45 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $26.26 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $28.37 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $30.84 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $33.78 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from PFE's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
PFE has crossed below its 200-week MA 22 times with an average 1-year return of +11.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1973 | Jun 1973 | 4 | 5.3% | -17.3% | +17451.6% |
| Nov 1973 | Dec 1973 | 4 | 9.4% | -23.2% | +16508.7% |
| Jan 1974 | Jan 1978 | 210 | 45.1% | -20.8% | +18553.0% |
| Feb 1978 | Mar 1978 | 4 | 3.1% | +23.0% | +23656.4% |
| Nov 1987 | Jan 1988 | 8 | 16.6% | +18.9% | +4540.7% |
| Feb 1988 | Feb 1988 | 1 | 0.2% | +20.2% | +4345.9% |
| May 1988 | May 1988 | 3 | 4.6% | +31.9% | +4303.4% |
| Jun 1988 | Sep 1988 | 12 | 4.0% | +15.7% | +4185.9% |
| Feb 1990 | Feb 1990 | 1 | 1.8% | +85.7% | +3583.3% |
| Apr 1990 | May 1990 | 1 | 0.7% | +109.4% | +3534.8% |
| Feb 1994 | May 1994 | 11 | 8.3% | +45.9% | +1529.5% |
| Jul 1994 | Jul 1994 | 1 | 0.9% | +57.9% | +1445.9% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 3 | 5.0% | -15.8% | +89.5% |
| Apr 2002 | Jan 2004 | 95 | 31.3% | -12.3% | +83.5% |
| Mar 2004 | Apr 2004 | 5 | 6.3% | -23.5% | +90.8% |
| Apr 2004 | Aug 2006 | 122 | 30.4% | -22.2% | +88.3% |
| Oct 2006 | Apr 2007 | 27 | 7.6% | -6.8% | +129.7% |
| Jun 2007 | Dec 2010 | 183 | 40.8% | -27.9% | +138.9% |
| Feb 2020 | Apr 2020 | 6 | 16.3% | +10.0% | +8.1% |
| Jun 2020 | Jul 2020 | 5 | 7.5% | +30.6% | +5.9% |
| Apr 2023 | Jun 2023 | 6 | 5.3% | -31.3% | -21.0% |
| Jun 2023 | Ongoing | 157+ | 36.7% | Ongoing | -20.7% |
| Average | 40 | — | +11.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PFE below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Pfizer Inc. (PFE) is trading 7.5% below its 200-week moving average of $27.25. The current price is $25.21.
What is PFE's 200-week moving average price?
Pfizer Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $27.25 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PFE drops below its 200-week moving average?
PFE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +11.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 40 weeks on average.
Is PFE a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PFE as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 44. Free cash flow yield is 8.6%. Return on equity is 8.3%. Price-to-book is 1.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PFE compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in PFE would have grown to $1466, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 8.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. PFE has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does PFE pay a dividend?
Yes. Pfizer Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 661.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19