PEP
PepsiCo Inc. Consumer Staples - Beverages Investor Relations →
PepsiCo Inc. (PEP) closed at $142.02 as of 2026-06-19, trading 6.3% below its 200-week moving average of $151.56. This places PEP in the deep value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -4.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 32, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.86 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2772 weeks of data, PEP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times. On average, these episodes lasted 11 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PEP at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +16.1%.
With a market cap of $194.1 billion, PEP is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.5%. Return on equity stands at 43.9%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 9.1x book value.
PEP is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PEP would have grown to $1627, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. PEP has returned 8.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 11% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PEP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PEP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying PEP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +22.9% after 12 months (median +17.0%), compared to +17.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 88% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +48.9% vs +25.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PEP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices PEP would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where PEP's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-09.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $139.57 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $149.75 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $161.53 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $175.32 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $191.69 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from PEP's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
PEP has crossed below its 200-week MA 29 times with an average 1-year return of +16.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1973 | Jul 1973 | 11 | 5.5% | -30.1% | +39415.6% |
| Aug 1973 | Sep 1973 | 5 | 5.3% | -47.2% | +40449.0% |
| Nov 1973 | May 1975 | 78 | 57.8% | -47.1% | +39141.3% |
| Jun 1975 | Oct 1975 | 16 | 15.9% | +16.3% | +47215.4% |
| Feb 1979 | Feb 1979 | 1 | 0.2% | +2.4% | +38856.5% |
| Feb 1979 | Mar 1979 | 1 | 1.0% | -7.5% | +39060.4% |
| Apr 1979 | Jun 1979 | 6 | 6.2% | +7.1% | +38448.6% |
| Jul 1979 | Jul 1979 | 1 | 2.0% | +9.9% | +38577.9% |
| Oct 1979 | Nov 1979 | 2 | 2.4% | +13.5% | +37979.2% |
| Jan 1980 | Jan 1980 | 1 | 4.6% | +32.7% | +38569.1% |
| Feb 1980 | Apr 1980 | 12 | 15.6% | +34.5% | +37952.0% |
| Jun 1994 | Oct 1994 | 19 | 10.7% | +53.7% | +2045.8% |
| Jan 1995 | Jan 1995 | 2 | 0.7% | +67.4% | +1820.2% |
| Sep 1999 | Oct 1999 | 4 | 5.0% | +44.2% | +783.9% |
| Nov 1999 | Nov 1999 | 1 | 0.5% | +49.6% | +752.3% |
| Jan 2000 | Feb 2000 | 2 | 2.7% | +34.4% | +746.0% |
| Feb 2000 | Mar 2000 | 5 | 9.0% | +43.7% | +758.9% |
| Jul 2002 | Jul 2002 | 2 | 12.0% | +32.7% | +652.3% |
| Aug 2002 | Oct 2002 | 6 | 11.3% | +14.3% | +588.5% |
| Dec 2002 | Dec 2002 | 1 | 0.6% | +16.0% | +555.1% |
| Jan 2003 | Apr 2003 | 12 | 8.2% | +15.0% | +558.3% |
| Oct 2008 | Sep 2009 | 51 | 22.2% | +8.3% | +320.6% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 2 | 0.3% | +11.3% | +291.8% |
| May 2018 | May 2018 | 2 | 1.3% | +35.8% | +88.5% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 5.7% | +33.3% | +66.2% |
| Nov 2024 | Nov 2024 | 1 | 0.5% | -4.5% | -4.3% |
| Dec 2024 | Feb 2026 | 61 | 18.7% | -4.5% | -3.8% |
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | 2 | 2.0% | N/A | -4.3% |
| May 2026 | Ongoing | 6+ | 7.4% | Ongoing | -3.8% |
| Average | 11 | — | +16.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PEP below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, PepsiCo Inc. (PEP) is trading 6.3% below its 200-week moving average of $151.56. The current price is $142.02.
What is PEP's 200-week moving average price?
PepsiCo Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $151.56 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PEP drops below its 200-week moving average?
PEP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +16.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 11 weeks on average.
Is PEP a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PEP as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 32. Free cash flow yield is 4.5%. Return on equity is 43.9%. Price-to-book is 9.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PEP compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in PEP would have grown to $1627, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 8.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. PEP has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19