PEGA
Pegasystems Inc. Technology - Enterprise Software Investor Relations →
Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA) closed at $36.24 as of 2026-09-11, trading 2.0% above its 200-week moving average of $35.52. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 5.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 53, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.72 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1525 weeks of data, PEGA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -1.4%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $6.0 billion, PEGA is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 8.5%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 54.7%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 10.6x book value.
Share count has increased 3.3% over three years, indicating dilution. PEGA passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 29.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PEGA would have grown to $498, compared to $1425 for the S&P 500. PEGA has returned 5.6% annualized vs 9.5% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PEGA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PEGA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 18 historical episodes, buying PEGA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -4.9% after 12 months (median -8.0%), compared to +12.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 44% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +4.3% vs +27.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PEGA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices PEGA would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where PEGA's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-20.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $22.91 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $25.55 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $28.87 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $33.18 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $39.00 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | $0.43 | $0.35 | -19.4% |
| 2026-04-21 | $0.69 | $0.46 | -33.6% |
| 2026-02-10 | $0.73 | $0.76 | +3.5% |
| 2025-10-21 | $0.20 | $0.30 | +50.1% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from PEGA's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
PEGA has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +-1.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1997 | Sep 1997 | 1 | 1.0% | -34.6% | +489.3% |
| Oct 1997 | Jun 1998 | 31 | 42.0% | -42.1% | +769.8% |
| Aug 1998 | Feb 2000 | 79 | 82.1% | -63.8% | +538.2% |
| Mar 2000 | Apr 2002 | 108 | 84.0% | -77.9% | +769.8% |
| Apr 2002 | Apr 2002 | 1 | 3.2% | -44.3% | +2016.6% |
| Jul 2002 | Jul 2002 | 1 | 12.0% | +40.8% | +2545.8% |
| Sep 2002 | May 2003 | 36 | 47.3% | +27.3% | +2595.2% |
| Jun 2003 | Jun 2003 | 1 | 5.5% | +41.9% | +2489.7% |
| Aug 2004 | Aug 2004 | 1 | 3.2% | +3.9% | +2568.0% |
| Feb 2005 | Nov 2005 | 39 | 25.2% | +34.4% | +2502.4% |
| Jun 2006 | Aug 2006 | 7 | 7.7% | +56.8% | +2200.7% |
| Jan 2012 | Jan 2012 | 1 | 1.6% | -9.5% | +472.3% |
| Jul 2012 | May 2013 | 44 | 37.0% | +14.8% | +416.4% |
| Apr 2014 | Apr 2014 | 3 | 3.5% | +36.7% | +369.8% |
| Feb 2022 | Oct 2024 | 140 | 66.0% | -41.3% | -10.8% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 2 | 7.8% | +35.0% | +15.2% |
| May 2026 | May 2026 | 2 | 2.0% | N/A | +7.9% |
| Jun 2026 | Aug 2026 | 11 | 23.4% | N/A | +11.0% |
| Average | 28 | — | +-1.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PEGA below its 200-week moving average?
No. Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA) is currently 2.0% above its 200-week moving average of $35.52. It would need to fall to $35.52 to cross below the line.
What is PEGA's 200-week moving average price?
Pegasystems Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $35.52 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PEGA drops below its 200-week moving average?
PEGA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -1.4%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 28 weeks on average.
Is PEGA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PEGA as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 53. Free cash flow yield is 8.5%. Return on equity is 54.7%. Price-to-book is 10.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PEGA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 29.3 years, $100 invested in PEGA would have grown to $498, compared to $1425 for the S&P 500. That's 5.6% annualized vs 9.5% for the index. PEGA has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does PEGA pay a dividend?
Yes. Pegasystems Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 33.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11