PDD
PDD Holdings Inc. Consumer Discretionary - E-Commerce Investor Relations →
PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD) closed at $79.56 as of 2026-06-19, trading 24.9% below its 200-week moving average of $105.88. This places PDD in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -22.9% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 25, PDD is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.89 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 364 weeks of data, PDD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 10 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PDD at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +85.6%.
With a market cap of $113.2 billion, PDD is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 63.3%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 25.4%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 1.8x book value.
Share count has increased 7.9% over three years, indicating dilution. PDD passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PDD would have grown to $346, compared to $278 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 19.4% vs 15.7% for the index — confirming PDD as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 30.3% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PDD vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PDD Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying PDD when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +62.0% after 12 months (median +53.0%), compared to +18.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +133.0% vs +41.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PDD crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices PDD would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where PDD's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-25.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $83.21 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $87.86 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $93.05 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $98.90 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $105.53 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from PDD's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
PDD has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +85.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2019 | Jul 2019 | 4 | 15.4% | +358.4% | +292.1% |
| Nov 2021 | Aug 2022 | 39 | 51.8% | +58.6% | +46.1% |
| Sep 2022 | Nov 2022 | 11 | 23.9% | +51.5% | +21.2% |
| Mar 2023 | Jul 2023 | 18 | 22.2% | +66.3% | +7.6% |
| Aug 2023 | Aug 2023 | 2 | 4.8% | +93.9% | +3.4% |
| Aug 2024 | Sep 2024 | 3 | 5.9% | +25.1% | -17.2% |
| Nov 2024 | Dec 2024 | 1 | 0.2% | +20.2% | -17.6% |
| Apr 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 2.9% | +10.7% | -12.1% |
| Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 | 3 | 1.4% | N/A | -21.3% |
| Mar 2026 | Ongoing | 16+ | 24.9% | Ongoing | -22.0% |
| Average | 10 | — | +85.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PDD below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD) is trading 24.9% below its 200-week moving average of $105.88. The current price is $79.56.
What is PDD's 200-week moving average price?
PDD Holdings Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $105.88 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PDD drops below its 200-week moving average?
PDD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +85.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 10 weeks on average.
Is PDD a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PDD as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 25 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 63.3%. Return on equity is 25.4%. Price-to-book is 1.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PDD compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 7 years, $100 invested in PDD would have grown to $346, compared to $278 for the S&P 500. That's 19.4% annualized vs 15.7% for the index. PDD has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19