PDD
PDD Holdings Inc. Consumer Discretionary - E-Commerce Investor Relations →
PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD) closed at $105.23 as of 2026-02-02, trading 3.7% above its 200-week moving average of $101.45. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -0.1% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 29, PDD is in oversold territory.
Over the past 345 weeks of data, PDD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times. On average, these episodes lasted 9 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PDD at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +96.3%.
With a market cap of $149.4 billion, PDD is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 58.5%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 30.5%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 2.6x book value.
Share count has increased 10.1% over three years, indicating dilution. PDD passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 6.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PDD would have grown to $458, compared to $256 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 25.6% vs 15.1% for the index — confirming PDD as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 68% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Growth of $100: PDD vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PDD Crosses Below the Line?
Across 8 historical episodes, buying PDD when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +72.3% after 12 months (median +53.0%), compared to +16.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 86% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +133.0% vs +41.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PDD crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
PDD has crossed below its 200-week MA 9 times with an average 1-year return of +96.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2019 | Jul 2019 | 4 | 15.4% | +358.4% | +418.6% |
| Nov 2021 | Aug 2022 | 39 | 51.8% | +58.6% | +93.3% |
| Sep 2022 | Nov 2022 | 11 | 23.9% | +51.5% | +60.2% |
| Mar 2023 | Jul 2023 | 18 | 22.2% | +66.3% | +42.3% |
| Aug 2023 | Aug 2023 | 2 | 4.8% | +93.9% | +36.7% |
| Aug 2024 | Sep 2024 | 3 | 5.9% | +25.1% | +9.5% |
| Nov 2024 | Dec 2024 | 1 | 0.2% | +20.2% | +9.0% |
| Apr 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 2.9% | N/A | +16.3% |
| Jan 2026 | Ongoing | 2+ | 0.1% | Ongoing | +4.1% |
| Average | 9 | — | +96.3% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02