PCAR
PACCAR Inc. Industrials - Trucks Investor Relations →
PACCAR Inc. (PCAR) closed at $118.95 as of 2026-06-19, trading 32.2% above its 200-week moving average of $89.94. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 32.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 54, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.00 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2365 weeks of data, PCAR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times. On average, these episodes lasted 9 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PCAR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +34.0%.
With a market cap of $62.6 billion, PCAR is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.4%. Return on equity stands at 13.1%. The stock trades at 3.2x book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PCAR would have grown to $9636, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.6% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming PCAR as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 22.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PCAR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PCAR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 22 historical episodes, buying PCAR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +31.9% after 12 months (median +34.0%), compared to +16.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 95% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +58.6% vs +35.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PCAR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices PCAR would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where PCAR's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-21.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $108.30 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $115.31 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $123.30 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $132.47 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $143.11 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from PCAR's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
PCAR has crossed below its 200-week MA 35 times with an average 1-year return of +34.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Mar 1981 | 1 | 1.2% | +18.6% | +50074.4% |
| Mar 1982 | Apr 1982 | 5 | 5.7% | +59.3% | +44956.9% |
| May 1982 | Aug 1982 | 13 | 16.0% | +50.4% | +44956.9% |
| Sep 1982 | Oct 1982 | 3 | 1.6% | +63.0% | +44956.9% |
| Apr 1985 | May 1985 | 3 | 4.4% | +36.5% | +33085.6% |
| Jun 1985 | Jul 1985 | 1 | 2.2% | +38.8% | +33487.8% |
| Oct 1985 | Dec 1985 | 6 | 6.6% | +12.2% | +33692.7% |
| Dec 1985 | Jan 1986 | 2 | 0.3% | +7.5% | +31750.5% |
| Jul 1986 | Oct 1986 | 13 | 11.5% | +45.2% | +29695.7% |
| Nov 1986 | Nov 1986 | 1 | 0.7% | +12.5% | +29378.7% |
| Dec 1986 | Jan 1987 | 2 | 1.5% | +31.4% | +29536.3% |
| Oct 1987 | Nov 1987 | 1 | 4.3% | +74.7% | +28320.5% |
| Aug 1990 | Jan 1991 | 23 | 21.5% | +42.1% | +18551.0% |
| May 1994 | Jul 1994 | 7 | 6.6% | +3.9% | +11259.3% |
| Aug 1994 | Jul 1995 | 48 | 18.8% | +11.6% | +11170.8% |
| Aug 1995 | Sep 1995 | 4 | 3.9% | -4.3% | +10610.5% |
| Sep 1995 | Feb 1996 | 20 | 18.2% | +2.8% | +10664.9% |
| Feb 1996 | May 1996 | 12 | 6.7% | +38.5% | +10379.9% |
| Jun 1996 | Sep 1996 | 16 | 8.0% | +99.3% | +10598.2% |
| Jun 2000 | Jul 2000 | 3 | 5.1% | +25.0% | +5145.5% |
| Jul 2000 | Nov 2000 | 16 | 13.2% | +46.1% | +5114.0% |
| Dec 2000 | Dec 2000 | 1 | 2.7% | +56.7% | +4995.8% |
| Sep 2008 | Sep 2009 | 49 | 44.6% | +12.0% | +886.1% |
| Sep 2009 | Mar 2010 | 24 | 13.1% | +29.7% | +744.2% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 1 | 0.5% | +20.6% | +680.5% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 1 | 2.2% | +34.2% | +690.8% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 11 | 16.6% | +5.2% | +682.3% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 2 | 6.3% | +10.9% | +679.4% |
| Dec 2011 | Jan 2012 | 3 | 8.9% | +25.9% | +739.0% |
| May 2012 | Jul 2012 | 10 | 5.7% | +50.5% | +689.9% |
| Nov 2015 | Feb 2016 | 15 | 14.1% | +24.1% | +435.9% |
| Jun 2016 | Jul 2016 | 3 | 1.9% | +23.3% | +393.8% |
| Oct 2018 | Nov 2018 | 3 | 6.5% | +46.8% | +336.4% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 3 | 4.0% | +49.9% | +320.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 2 | 14.0% | +86.0% | +321.6% |
| Average | 9 | — | +34.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PCAR below its 200-week moving average?
No. PACCAR Inc. (PCAR) is currently 32.2% above its 200-week moving average of $89.94. It would need to fall to $89.94 to cross below the line.
What is PCAR's 200-week moving average price?
PACCAR Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $89.94 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PCAR drops below its 200-week moving average?
PCAR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +34.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 9 weeks on average.
Is PCAR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PCAR as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 54. Free cash flow yield is 2.4%. Return on equity is 13.1%. Price-to-book is 3.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PCAR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in PCAR would have grown to $9636, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 14.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. PCAR has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19