PCAR
PACCAR Inc. Industrials - Trucks Investor Relations →
PACCAR Inc. (PCAR) closed at $132.68 as of 2026-07-31, trading 43.8% above its 200-week moving average of $92.30. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 43.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 57, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.25 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2371 weeks of data, PCAR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times. On average, these episodes lasted 9 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PCAR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +34.0%.
With a market cap of $69.8 billion, PCAR is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.8%. Return on equity stands at 12.8%. The stock trades at 3.5x book value.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PCAR would have grown to $10748, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.9% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming PCAR as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 22.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PCAR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PCAR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 22 historical episodes, buying PCAR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +31.9% after 12 months (median +34.0%), compared to +16.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 95% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +58.6% vs +35.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PCAR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices PCAR would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where PCAR's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $108.70 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $115.28 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $122.71 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $131.16 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $140.86 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from PCAR's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
PCAR has crossed below its 200-week MA 35 times with an average 1-year return of +34.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Mar 1981 | 1 | 1.2% | +18.6% | +55865.9% |
| Mar 1982 | Apr 1982 | 5 | 5.7% | +59.3% | +50157.6% |
| May 1982 | Aug 1982 | 13 | 16.0% | +50.4% | +50157.6% |
| Sep 1982 | Oct 1982 | 3 | 1.6% | +63.0% | +50157.6% |
| Apr 1985 | May 1985 | 3 | 4.4% | +36.5% | +36916.1% |
| Jun 1985 | Jul 1985 | 1 | 2.2% | +38.8% | +37364.7% |
| Oct 1985 | Dec 1985 | 6 | 6.6% | +12.2% | +37593.2% |
| Dec 1985 | Jan 1986 | 2 | 0.3% | +7.5% | +35426.9% |
| Jul 1986 | Oct 1986 | 13 | 11.5% | +45.2% | +33134.9% |
| Nov 1986 | Nov 1986 | 1 | 0.7% | +12.5% | +32781.3% |
| Dec 1986 | Jan 1987 | 2 | 1.5% | +31.4% | +32957.2% |
| Oct 1987 | Nov 1987 | 1 | 4.3% | +74.7% | +31601.0% |
| Aug 1990 | Jan 1991 | 23 | 21.5% | +40.5% | +20342.7% |
| May 1994 | Jul 1994 | 7 | 6.7% | +3.9% | +12570.4% |
| Aug 1994 | Jul 1995 | 48 | 18.8% | +11.6% | +12471.7% |
| Aug 1995 | Sep 1995 | 4 | 3.5% | -4.3% | +11846.8% |
| Sep 1995 | Feb 1996 | 20 | 18.2% | +2.8% | +11907.4% |
| Feb 1996 | May 1996 | 12 | 6.7% | +39.0% | +11589.5% |
| Jun 1996 | Sep 1996 | 16 | 8.1% | +99.3% | +11833.0% |
| Jun 2000 | Jul 2000 | 3 | 5.2% | +25.0% | +5751.0% |
| Jul 2000 | Nov 2000 | 16 | 13.3% | +46.1% | +5715.9% |
| Dec 2000 | Dec 2000 | 1 | 2.8% | +56.7% | +5583.9% |
| Sep 2008 | Sep 2009 | 49 | 44.6% | +12.0% | +999.9% |
| Sep 2009 | Mar 2010 | 24 | 13.1% | +29.7% | +841.7% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 1 | 0.6% | +20.6% | +770.5% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 1 | 2.3% | +34.2% | +782.0% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 11 | 16.2% | +5.2% | +772.6% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 2 | 6.3% | +11.0% | +765.6% |
| Dec 2011 | Jan 2012 | 3 | 7.1% | +25.8% | +818.2% |
| May 2012 | Jul 2012 | 10 | 5.8% | +50.3% | +776.6% |
| Nov 2015 | Feb 2016 | 15 | 11.6% | +23.5% | +495.0% |
| Jun 2016 | Jul 2016 | 3 | 2.0% | +23.3% | +450.8% |
| Oct 2018 | Nov 2018 | 3 | 6.6% | +46.8% | +386.8% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 3 | 3.6% | +49.9% | +369.4% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 2 | 14.1% | +86.0% | +370.2% |
| Average | 9 | — | +34.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PCAR below its 200-week moving average?
No. PACCAR Inc. (PCAR) is currently 43.8% above its 200-week moving average of $92.30. It would need to fall to $92.30 to cross below the line.
What is PCAR's 200-week moving average price?
PACCAR Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $92.30 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PCAR drops below its 200-week moving average?
PCAR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +34.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 9 weeks on average.
Is PCAR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PCAR as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 57. Free cash flow yield is 2.8%. Return on equity is 12.8%. Price-to-book is 3.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PCAR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in PCAR would have grown to $10748, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 14.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. PCAR has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does PCAR pay a dividend?
Yes. PACCAR Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 105.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31