PBR
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras Energy - Oil & Gas Integrated Investor Relations →
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) closed at $19.40 as of 2026-07-31, trading 64.1% above its 200-week moving average of $11.82. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 59.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 44, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.06 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1307 weeks of data, PBR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times. On average, these episodes lasted 35 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PBR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +23.5%.
With a market cap of $125.0 billion, PBR is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 66.3%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 25.6%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
Over the past 25.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PBR would have grown to $1847, compared to $967 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.3% vs 9.5% for the index — confirming PBR as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -24.7% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PBR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PBR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying PBR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +25.8% after 12 months (median +39.0%), compared to +14.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 69% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +71.9% vs +26.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PBR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from PBR's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
PBR has crossed below its 200-week MA 16 times with an average 1-year return of +23.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2001 | Feb 2002 | 32 | 26.7% | -26.6% | +1768.4% |
| Apr 2002 | Jun 2003 | 57 | 55.9% | -18.3% | +1628.4% |
| Jun 2003 | Jun 2003 | 2 | 4.3% | +49.3% | +1950.6% |
| Jul 2003 | Aug 2003 | 1 | 4.3% | +57.6% | +1954.9% |
| Oct 2008 | Feb 2009 | 17 | 40.4% | +94.8% | +210.1% |
| Feb 2009 | Mar 2009 | 3 | 8.9% | +64.8% | +194.0% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 3 | 6.2% | +2.9% | +120.2% |
| Jun 2010 | Feb 2011 | 35 | 15.8% | -8.7% | +107.8% |
| Mar 2011 | Mar 2011 | 1 | 0.2% | -25.4% | +89.6% |
| Apr 2011 | Oct 2016 | 287 | 77.3% | -32.5% | +94.0% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 4 | 9.1% | +0.6% | +525.2% |
| Dec 2016 | Jan 2017 | 3 | 3.4% | -7.6% | +550.9% |
| Feb 2017 | Sep 2017 | 28 | 20.3% | +36.4% | +550.3% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2021 | 65 | 59.2% | -25.5% | +519.4% |
| Jul 2021 | Oct 2021 | 13 | 9.7% | +53.4% | +472.8% |
| Oct 2021 | Nov 2021 | 6 | 10.0% | +160.5% | +492.0% |
| Average | 35 | — | +23.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PBR below its 200-week moving average?
No. Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) is currently 64.1% above its 200-week moving average of $11.82. It would need to fall to $11.82 to cross below the line.
What is PBR's 200-week moving average price?
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras's 200-week moving average is $11.82 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PBR drops below its 200-week moving average?
PBR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +23.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 35 weeks on average.
Is PBR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PBR as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 44. Free cash flow yield is 66.3%. Return on equity is 25.6%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PBR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 25.1 years, $100 invested in PBR would have grown to $1847, compared to $967 for the S&P 500. That's 12.3% annualized vs 9.5% for the index. PBR has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does PBR pay a dividend?
Yes. Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras currently pays a dividend yield of 922.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31