PBR

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras Energy - Oil & Gas Integrated Investor Relations →

NO
43.4% ABOVE
↓ Approaching Was 48.5% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $10.37
14-Week RSI 71

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) closed at $14.87 as of 2026-02-02, trading 43.4% above its 200-week moving average of $10.37. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 48.5% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 71, PBR is in overbought territory.

Over the past 1282 weeks of data, PBR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 33 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PBR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +22.6%.

With a market cap of $95.8 billion, PBR is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 84.7%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 19.0%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.4x book value.

Over the past 24.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PBR would have grown to $1397, compared to $889 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.3% vs 9.3% for the index — confirming PBR as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.

Free cash flow has been declining at a -9.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.

Growth of $100: PBR vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After PBR Crosses Below the Line?

Across 17 historical episodes, buying PBR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +25.1% after 12 months (median +12.0%), compared to +13.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 71% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +70.5% vs +26.1% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PBR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

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Historical Touches

PBR has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +22.6% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Jul 2001Feb 20023226.6%-26.6%+1312.9%
May 2002May 200225.2%-9.4%+1281.1%
Jun 2002Jun 20035255.9%-1.1%+1329.9%
Jun 2003Jun 200324.2%+49.3%+1450.7%
Jul 2003Aug 200314.2%+57.6%+1453.9%
Oct 2008Feb 20091740.4%+94.8%+134.5%
Feb 2009Mar 200938.8%+64.8%+122.3%
May 2010Jun 201036.1%+2.9%+66.5%
Jun 2010Feb 20113515.7%-8.7%+57.1%
Mar 2011Mar 201110.2%-25.4%+43.4%
Apr 2011Oct 201628777.3%-32.5%+46.7%
Oct 2016Nov 201649.1%+0.6%+372.8%
Dec 2016Jan 201733.4%-7.6%+392.2%
Feb 2017Sep 20172820.3%+36.4%+391.7%
Mar 2020May 20216559.2%-25.5%+368.4%
Jul 2021Oct 20211311.1%+53.4%+333.2%
Oct 2021Dec 202179.9%+160.5%+347.7%
Average33+22.6%

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02