PBR
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras Energy - Oil & Gas Integrated Investor Relations →
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) closed at $14.87 as of 2026-02-02, trading 43.4% above its 200-week moving average of $10.37. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 48.5% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 71, PBR is in overbought territory.
Over the past 1282 weeks of data, PBR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 33 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PBR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +22.6%.
With a market cap of $95.8 billion, PBR is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 84.7%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 19.0%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.4x book value.
Over the past 24.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PBR would have grown to $1397, compared to $889 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.3% vs 9.3% for the index — confirming PBR as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -9.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: PBR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PBR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying PBR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +25.1% after 12 months (median +12.0%), compared to +13.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 71% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +70.5% vs +26.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PBR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
PBR has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +22.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2001 | Feb 2002 | 32 | 26.6% | -26.6% | +1312.9% |
| May 2002 | May 2002 | 2 | 5.2% | -9.4% | +1281.1% |
| Jun 2002 | Jun 2003 | 52 | 55.9% | -1.1% | +1329.9% |
| Jun 2003 | Jun 2003 | 2 | 4.2% | +49.3% | +1450.7% |
| Jul 2003 | Aug 2003 | 1 | 4.2% | +57.6% | +1453.9% |
| Oct 2008 | Feb 2009 | 17 | 40.4% | +94.8% | +134.5% |
| Feb 2009 | Mar 2009 | 3 | 8.8% | +64.8% | +122.3% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 3 | 6.1% | +2.9% | +66.5% |
| Jun 2010 | Feb 2011 | 35 | 15.7% | -8.7% | +57.1% |
| Mar 2011 | Mar 2011 | 1 | 0.2% | -25.4% | +43.4% |
| Apr 2011 | Oct 2016 | 287 | 77.3% | -32.5% | +46.7% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 4 | 9.1% | +0.6% | +372.8% |
| Dec 2016 | Jan 2017 | 3 | 3.4% | -7.6% | +392.2% |
| Feb 2017 | Sep 2017 | 28 | 20.3% | +36.4% | +391.7% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2021 | 65 | 59.2% | -25.5% | +368.4% |
| Jul 2021 | Oct 2021 | 13 | 11.1% | +53.4% | +333.2% |
| Oct 2021 | Dec 2021 | 7 | 9.9% | +160.5% | +347.7% |
| Average | 33 | — | +22.6% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02