PBF
PBF Energy Inc. Energy - Refining Investor Relations →
PBF Energy Inc. (PBF) closed at $77.19 as of 2026-09-18, trading 110.1% above its 200-week moving average of $36.74. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 114.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 74, PBF is in overbought territory.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.5x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 670 weeks of data, PBF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times. On average, these episodes lasted 22 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -5.4%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $9.1 billion, PBF is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 0.9%. Return on equity stands at 23.2%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 9.8% over the past three years. PBF passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 12.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PBF would have grown to $391, compared to $524 for the S&P 500. PBF has returned 11.1% annualized vs 13.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PBF vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PBF Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying PBF when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -5.0% after 12 months (median +13.0%), compared to +14.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 58% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +14.1% vs +30.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PBF crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices PBF would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where PBF's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $44.68 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $50.71 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $58.64 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $69.49 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $85.28 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | $4.12 | $6.22 | +51.1% |
| 2026-04-30 | $-0.90 | $-0.88 | +1.7% |
| 2026-02-12 | $-0.11 | $0.49 | +550.0% |
| 2025-10-30 | $-0.75 | $-0.52 | +30.9% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from PBF's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
PBF has crossed below its 200-week MA 13 times with an average 1-year return of +-5.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2013 | Nov 2013 | 1 | 0.4% | +10.9% | +306.9% |
| Jan 2014 | Apr 2014 | 13 | 10.5% | -7.2% | +309.8% |
| Jun 2014 | Aug 2014 | 8 | 5.3% | +10.7% | +308.6% |
| Sep 2014 | Nov 2014 | 9 | 14.7% | +27.4% | +341.0% |
| Dec 2014 | Jan 2015 | 5 | 8.4% | +42.8% | +314.9% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 1 | 1.2% | -6.1% | +282.7% |
| May 2016 | Dec 2016 | 28 | 24.9% | -20.3% | +280.8% |
| Jan 2017 | Aug 2017 | 34 | 19.9% | +51.3% | +293.5% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 5 | 17.4% | -62.3% | +211.6% |
| Jul 2019 | Oct 2019 | 13 | 24.1% | -69.4% | +221.1% |
| Jan 2020 | Mar 2022 | 113 | 82.0% | -70.2% | +210.9% |
| Oct 2024 | Oct 2025 | 51 | 53.5% | +27.4% | +195.3% |
| Dec 2025 | Feb 2026 | 9 | 22.7% | N/A | +135.4% |
| Average | 22 | — | +-5.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PBF below its 200-week moving average?
No. PBF Energy Inc. (PBF) is currently 110.1% above its 200-week moving average of $36.74. It would need to fall to $36.74 to cross below the line.
What is PBF's 200-week moving average price?
PBF Energy Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $36.74 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PBF drops below its 200-week moving average?
PBF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -5.4%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 22 weeks on average.
Is PBF a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PBF as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 74 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 0.9%. Return on equity is 23.2%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PBF compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 12.9 years, $100 invested in PBF would have grown to $391, compared to $524 for the S&P 500. That's 11.1% annualized vs 13.7% for the index. PBF has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does PBF pay a dividend?
Yes. PBF Energy Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 143.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18