PBA
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Pembina Pipeline Corporation (PBA) closed at $47.53 as of 2026-09-18, trading 35.8% above its 200-week moving average of $35.00. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 35.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 51, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.16 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 784 weeks of data, PBA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PBA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +27.6%.
With a market cap of $27.6 billion, PBA is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.3%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 10.5%. The stock trades at 2.5x book value.
Share count has increased 5.6% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 15.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PBA would have grown to $410, compared to $874 for the S&P 500. PBA has returned 9.8% annualized vs 15.5% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 2.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PBA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PBA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 4 historical episodes, buying PBA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +30.8% after 12 months (median +25.0%), compared to +25.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +56.8% vs +42.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PBA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices PBA would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where PBA's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $44.59 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $46.26 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $48.05 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $49.99 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $52.10 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | $0.75 | $0.66 | -11.6% |
| 2026-05-07 | $0.70 | $0.81 | +16.3% |
| 2026-02-26 | $0.75 | $0.76 | +0.3% |
| 2025-11-06 | $0.62 | $0.47 | -23.6% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from PBA's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
PBA has crossed below its 200-week MA 4 times with an average 1-year return of +27.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2015 | Apr 2016 | 39 | 34.3% | +7.4% | +194.5% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 3 | 2.4% | +18.0% | +188.6% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 4 | 4.5% | +24.6% | +173.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | 51 | 48.1% | +60.5% | +230.0% |
| Average | 24 | — | +27.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PBA below its 200-week moving average?
No. Pembina Pipeline Corporation (PBA) is currently 35.8% above its 200-week moving average of $35.00. It would need to fall to $35.00 to cross below the line.
What is PBA's 200-week moving average price?
Pembina Pipeline Corporation's 200-week moving average is $35.00 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PBA drops below its 200-week moving average?
PBA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 4 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +27.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is PBA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PBA as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 51. Free cash flow yield is 5.3%. Return on equity is 10.5%. Price-to-book is 2.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PBA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 15.1 years, $100 invested in PBA would have grown to $410, compared to $874 for the S&P 500. That's 9.8% annualized vs 15.5% for the index. PBA has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does PBA pay a dividend?
Yes. Pembina Pipeline Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 443.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18