PB
Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. (PB) closed at $70.02 as of 2026-09-18, trading 10.6% above its 200-week moving average of $63.32. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 11.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 46, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.94 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1405 weeks of data, PB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times. On average, these episodes lasted 8 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PB at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +26.2%.
With a market cap of $8.4 billion, PB is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 7.1%. The stock trades at 0.8x book value.
Over the past 27 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PB would have grown to $1537, compared to $892 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 10.6% vs 8.4% for the index — confirming PB as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 3.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PB vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PB Crosses Below the Line?
Across 25 historical episodes, buying PB when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +25.0% after 12 months (median +22.0%), compared to +11.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 96% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +43.5% vs +26.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PB crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices PB would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where PB's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $69.43 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $71.09 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $72.83 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $74.65 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $76.57 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | $1.55 | $1.62 | +4.5% |
| 2026-04-29 | $1.45 | $1.50 | +3.2% |
| 2026-01-28 | $1.45 | $1.46 | +0.9% |
| 2025-10-29 | $1.44 | $1.45 | +0.4% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from PB's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
PB has crossed below its 200-week MA 25 times with an average 1-year return of +26.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2000 | Mar 2000 | 2 | 7.2% | +71.1% | +1763.1% |
| Apr 2000 | May 2000 | 1 | 1.6% | +54.1% | +1654.5% |
| Jul 2007 | Aug 2007 | 1 | 1.6% | +15.9% | +294.7% |
| Dec 2007 | Apr 2008 | 19 | 21.9% | -5.0% | +282.5% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 6 | 8.9% | +7.2% | +296.5% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 1 | 3.6% | +23.8% | +272.9% |
| Nov 2008 | Nov 2008 | 1 | 10.2% | +44.8% | +298.9% |
| Dec 2008 | Jul 2009 | 31 | 30.3% | +47.2% | +302.5% |
| Aug 2010 | Sep 2010 | 6 | 6.4% | +19.7% | +238.1% |
| Oct 2010 | Nov 2010 | 1 | 1.6% | +29.7% | +237.8% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 2 | 1.0% | +32.9% | +213.0% |
| Jan 2015 | Feb 2015 | 3 | 5.2% | -17.8% | +106.2% |
| Aug 2015 | Oct 2015 | 7 | 3.2% | +15.5% | +94.3% |
| Dec 2015 | Apr 2016 | 19 | 29.1% | +50.4% | +97.0% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 2 | 4.7% | +40.3% | +95.0% |
| Jun 2016 | Jul 2016 | 4 | 5.0% | +34.8% | +88.3% |
| Jul 2016 | Aug 2016 | 1 | 0.4% | +26.9% | +84.3% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 1.2% | +27.6% | +54.0% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 12 | 30.1% | +26.9% | +38.9% |
| Jun 2020 | Nov 2020 | 24 | 22.3% | +24.2% | +39.0% |
| Mar 2023 | Nov 2023 | 38 | 19.2% | +2.0% | +24.4% |
| Feb 2024 | Mar 2024 | 3 | 3.0% | +28.3% | +24.3% |
| Apr 2024 | Apr 2024 | 2 | 3.6% | +11.0% | +26.2% |
| May 2024 | Jul 2024 | 7 | 8.1% | +16.2% | +22.7% |
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2025 | 3 | 1.1% | N/A | +15.0% |
| Average | 8 | — | +26.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PB below its 200-week moving average?
No. Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. (PB) is currently 10.6% above its 200-week moving average of $63.32. It would need to fall to $63.32 to cross below the line.
What is PB's 200-week moving average price?
Prosperity Bancshares, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $63.32 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PB drops below its 200-week moving average?
PB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +26.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 8 weeks on average.
Is PB a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PB as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 46. Return on equity is 7.1%. Price-to-book is 0.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PB compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 27 years, $100 invested in PB would have grown to $1537, compared to $892 for the S&P 500. That's 10.6% annualized vs 8.4% for the index. PB has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does PB pay a dividend?
Yes. Prosperity Bancshares, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 343.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18