PAYX
Paychex, Inc. Technology - Software - Application Investor Relations →
Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) closed at $98.24 as of 2026-06-19, trading 14.4% below its 200-week moving average of $114.84. This places PAYX in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -12.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 60, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.79 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2186 weeks of data, PAYX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 20 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PAYX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +22.1%.
With a market cap of $35.2 billion, PAYX is a large-cap stock. The stock trades at 8.8x book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PAYX would have grown to $10532, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.9% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming PAYX as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 5.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PAYX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PAYX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying PAYX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +12.9% after 12 months (median +5.0%), compared to +7.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 62% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +31.4% vs +20.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PAYX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices PAYX would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where PAYX's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-06-25.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $80.70 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $85.26 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $90.38 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $96.14 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $102.69 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from PAYX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
PAYX has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +22.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1984 | Jan 1985 | 23 | 24.7% | +78.4% | +142294.1% |
| Jan 1990 | Feb 1990 | 1 | 1.8% | +8.6% | +33099.7% |
| Feb 1990 | Dec 1990 | 41 | 29.9% | +21.9% | +34003.2% |
| Dec 1990 | Jan 1991 | 4 | 14.8% | +92.0% | +32293.1% |
| Jun 2002 | Aug 2003 | 60 | 32.5% | -0.3% | +567.1% |
| Feb 2004 | Mar 2004 | 5 | 7.5% | -7.6% | +486.8% |
| Jun 2004 | Nov 2004 | 19 | 13.8% | -10.8% | +486.9% |
| Jan 2005 | Mar 2005 | 11 | 6.7% | +21.8% | +515.1% |
| Apr 2005 | Jun 2005 | 11 | 6.6% | +30.0% | +516.3% |
| Dec 2007 | Mar 2008 | 13 | 12.8% | -17.7% | +446.6% |
| May 2008 | Aug 2008 | 12 | 11.3% | -18.4% | +435.8% |
| Aug 2008 | Nov 2009 | 66 | 37.9% | -12.6% | +431.2% |
| Dec 2009 | Mar 2010 | 12 | 8.3% | +4.8% | +452.6% |
| Mar 2010 | Nov 2010 | 35 | 17.0% | +8.1% | +450.4% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 10 | 8.3% | +24.2% | +486.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 20.3% | +90.6% | +128.7% |
| May 2020 | May 2020 | 1 | 3.5% | +63.2% | +87.4% |
| Oct 2025 | Ongoing | 34+ | 26.9% | Ongoing | -13.3% |
| Average | 20 | — | +22.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PAYX below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) is trading 14.4% below its 200-week moving average of $114.84. The current price is $98.24.
What is PAYX's 200-week moving average price?
Paychex, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $114.84 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PAYX drops below its 200-week moving average?
PAYX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +22.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 20 weeks on average.
Is PAYX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PAYX as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 60. Price-to-book is 8.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PAYX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in PAYX would have grown to $10532, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 14.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. PAYX has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19