PAYX
Paychex, Inc. Technology - Software - Application Investor Relations →
Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) closed at $93.02 as of 2026-05-01, trading 20.4% below its 200-week moving average of $116.85. This places PAYX in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -23.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 38, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.95 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2179 weeks of data, PAYX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 20 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PAYX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +22.1%.
With a market cap of $33.3 billion, PAYX is a large-cap stock. The stock trades at 8.3x book value.
Over the past 33.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PAYX would have grown to $9846, compared to $2973 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.8% vs 10.7% for the index — confirming PAYX as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 5.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PAYX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PAYX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying PAYX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +12.9% after 12 months (median +5.0%), compared to +7.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 62% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +31.4% vs +20.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PAYX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
PAYX has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +22.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1984 | Jan 1985 | 23 | 24.7% | +78.4% | +133015.8% |
| Jan 1990 | Feb 1990 | 1 | 1.8% | +8.6% | +30936.4% |
| Feb 1990 | Dec 1990 | 41 | 29.9% | +21.9% | +31781.0% |
| Dec 1990 | Jan 1991 | 4 | 14.8% | +92.0% | +30182.4% |
| Jun 2002 | Aug 2003 | 60 | 32.5% | -0.3% | +523.6% |
| Feb 2004 | Mar 2004 | 5 | 7.5% | -7.6% | +448.5% |
| Jun 2004 | Nov 2004 | 19 | 13.8% | -10.8% | +448.7% |
| Jan 2005 | Mar 2005 | 11 | 6.7% | +21.8% | +475.0% |
| Apr 2005 | Jun 2005 | 11 | 6.6% | +30.0% | +476.1% |
| Dec 2007 | Mar 2008 | 13 | 12.8% | -17.7% | +411.0% |
| May 2008 | Aug 2008 | 12 | 11.3% | -18.4% | +400.9% |
| Aug 2008 | Nov 2009 | 66 | 37.9% | -12.6% | +396.6% |
| Dec 2009 | Mar 2010 | 12 | 8.3% | +4.8% | +416.6% |
| Mar 2010 | Nov 2010 | 35 | 17.0% | +8.1% | +414.5% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 10 | 8.3% | +24.2% | +448.1% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 20.3% | +90.6% | +113.8% |
| May 2020 | May 2020 | 1 | 3.5% | +63.2% | +75.2% |
| Oct 2025 | Ongoing | 27+ | 26.9% | Ongoing | -18.9% |
| Average | 20 | — | +22.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PAYX below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-05-01, Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) is trading 20.4% below its 200-week moving average of $116.85. The current price is $93.02.
What is PAYX's 200-week moving average price?
Paychex, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $116.85 as of 2026-05-01. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PAYX drops below its 200-week moving average?
PAYX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +22.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 20 weeks on average.
Is PAYX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PAYX as of 2026-05-01: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 38. Price-to-book is 8.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PAYX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.3 years, $100 invested in PAYX would have grown to $9846, compared to $2973 for the S&P 500. That's 14.8% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. PAYX has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does PAYX pay a dividend?
Yes. Paychex, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 464.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-01