PAYX
Paychex, Inc. Technology - Software - Application Investor Relations →
Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) closed at $98.53 as of 2026-02-02, trading 16.4% below its 200-week moving average of $117.88. This places PAYX in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -13.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 30, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 2167 weeks of data, PAYX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PAYX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +22.1%.
With a market cap of $35.4 billion, PAYX is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.8%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 40.9%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 9.1x book value.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PAYX would have grown to $10429, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.0% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming PAYX as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 5.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Growth of $100: PAYX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PAYX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying PAYX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +12.9% after 12 months (median +5.0%), compared to +7.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 62% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +31.4% vs +20.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PAYX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
PAYX has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +22.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1984 | Jan 1985 | 23 | 24.7% | +78.4% | +140900.9% |
| Jan 1990 | Feb 1990 | 1 | 1.8% | +8.6% | +32774.8% |
| Feb 1990 | Dec 1990 | 41 | 29.9% | +21.9% | +33669.5% |
| Dec 1990 | Jan 1991 | 4 | 14.8% | +92.0% | +31976.1% |
| Jun 2002 | Aug 2003 | 60 | 32.5% | -0.3% | +560.6% |
| Feb 2004 | Mar 2004 | 5 | 7.5% | -7.6% | +481.0% |
| Jun 2004 | Nov 2004 | 19 | 13.8% | -10.8% | +481.2% |
| Jan 2005 | Mar 2005 | 11 | 6.7% | +21.8% | +509.1% |
| Apr 2005 | Jun 2005 | 11 | 6.6% | +30.0% | +510.3% |
| Dec 2007 | Mar 2008 | 13 | 12.8% | -17.7% | +441.3% |
| May 2008 | Aug 2008 | 12 | 11.3% | -18.4% | +430.6% |
| Aug 2008 | Nov 2009 | 66 | 37.9% | -12.6% | +426.0% |
| Dec 2009 | Mar 2010 | 12 | 8.3% | +4.8% | +447.2% |
| Mar 2010 | Nov 2010 | 35 | 17.0% | +8.1% | +445.0% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 10 | 8.3% | +24.2% | +480.6% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 20.3% | +90.6% | +126.4% |
| May 2020 | May 2020 | 1 | 3.5% | +63.2% | +85.5% |
| Oct 2025 | Ongoing | 15+ | 16.4% | Ongoing | -14.1% |
| Average | 19 | — | +22.1% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02