PAYC
Paycom Software Inc. Technology - HR Software Investor Relations →
Paycom Software Inc. (PAYC) closed at $226.28 as of 2026-09-18, trading 8.3% above its 200-week moving average of $208.88. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 4.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 80, PAYC is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.17 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 600 weeks of data, PAYC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times. On average, these episodes lasted 34 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -10.9%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $10.2 billion, PAYC is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.2%. Return on equity stands at 41.1%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 17.2x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.3% over the past three years.
Over the past 11.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PAYC would have grown to $738, compared to $446 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 18.8% vs 13.8% for the index — confirming PAYC as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 20.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PAYC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PAYC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 6 historical episodes, buying PAYC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -16.0% after 12 months (median -33.0%), compared to +16.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 33% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +10.0% vs +46.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PAYC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices PAYC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where PAYC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $119.76 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $138.27 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $163.55 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $200.15 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $257.84 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $2.38 | $2.78 | +16.8% |
| 2026-05-06 | $2.99 | $3.15 | +5.4% |
| 2026-02-11 | $2.45 | $2.45 | +0.1% |
| 2025-11-05 | $1.97 | $1.94 | -1.6% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from PAYC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
PAYC has crossed below its 200-week MA 6 times with an average 1-year return of +-10.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 3 | 13.0% | +73.5% | +777.0% |
| Apr 2022 | Jul 2022 | 10 | 10.7% | +3.2% | -17.4% |
| Oct 2022 | Oct 2022 | 1 | 4.7% | -11.1% | -22.2% |
| Oct 2022 | Nov 2022 | 3 | 3.3% | -47.9% | -24.1% |
| Dec 2022 | Jul 2023 | 31 | 19.0% | -40.3% | -26.0% |
| Jul 2023 | Aug 2026 | 157 | 55.5% | -43.0% | -20.0% |
| Average | 34 | — | +-10.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PAYC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Paycom Software Inc. (PAYC) is currently 8.3% above its 200-week moving average of $208.88. It would need to fall to $208.88 to cross below the line.
What is PAYC's 200-week moving average price?
Paycom Software Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $208.88 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PAYC drops below its 200-week moving average?
PAYC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -10.9%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 34 weeks on average.
Is PAYC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PAYC as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 80 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 4.2%. Return on equity is 41.1%. Price-to-book is 17.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PAYC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 11.6 years, $100 invested in PAYC would have grown to $738, compared to $446 for the S&P 500. That's 18.8% annualized vs 13.8% for the index. PAYC has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does PAYC pay a dividend?
Yes. Paycom Software Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 66.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18