PAYC
Paycom Software Inc. Technology - HR Software Investor Relations →
Paycom Software Inc. (PAYC) closed at $130.97 as of 2026-02-02, trading 44.5% below its 200-week moving average of $236.18. This places PAYC in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -43.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 20, PAYC is in oversold territory.
Over the past 568 weeks of data, PAYC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times. On average, these episodes lasted 30 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -4.5%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $7.4 billion, PAYC is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.0%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 28.6%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 4.1x book value.
Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 3.8% reduction over three years. PAYC passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 11 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PAYC would have grown to $424, compared to $403 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.0% vs 13.5% for the index — confirming PAYC as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 20.3% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Growth of $100: PAYC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PAYC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 6 historical episodes, buying PAYC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -16.0% after 12 months (median -33.0%), compared to +16.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 33% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +10.0% vs +46.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PAYC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
PAYC has crossed below its 200-week MA 6 times with an average 1-year return of +-4.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 3 | 13.0% | +73.5% | +404.0% |
| Apr 2022 | Jul 2022 | 10 | 10.7% | +3.2% | -52.5% |
| Oct 2022 | Oct 2022 | 1 | 4.7% | -11.1% | -55.3% |
| Oct 2022 | Nov 2022 | 3 | 3.3% | -47.9% | -56.4% |
| Dec 2022 | Jul 2023 | 31 | 19.0% | -40.3% | -57.5% |
| Jul 2023 | Ongoing | 132+ | 55.5% | Ongoing | -54.1% |
| Average | 30 | — | +-4.5% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02