PAYC
Paycom Software Inc. Technology - HR Software Investor Relations →
Paycom Software Inc. (PAYC) closed at $124.82 as of 2026-03-20, trading 45.9% below its 200-week moving average of $230.72. This places PAYC in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -45.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 30, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.7x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 574 weeks of data, PAYC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times. On average, these episodes lasted 31 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -4.5%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $6.9 billion, PAYC is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.8%. Return on equity stands at 27.4%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 3.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.3% over the past three years. PAYC passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 11.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PAYC would have grown to $405, compared to $379 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.5% vs 12.8% for the index — confirming PAYC as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 20.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PAYC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PAYC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 6 historical episodes, buying PAYC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -16.0% after 12 months (median -33.0%), compared to +16.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 33% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +10.0% vs +46.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PAYC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
PAYC has crossed below its 200-week MA 6 times with an average 1-year return of +-4.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 3 | 13.0% | +73.5% | +381.7% |
| Apr 2022 | Jul 2022 | 10 | 10.7% | +3.2% | -54.6% |
| Oct 2022 | Oct 2022 | 1 | 4.7% | -11.1% | -57.3% |
| Oct 2022 | Nov 2022 | 3 | 3.3% | -47.9% | -58.3% |
| Dec 2022 | Jul 2023 | 31 | 19.0% | -40.3% | -59.3% |
| Jul 2023 | Ongoing | 138+ | 55.5% | Ongoing | -56.1% |
| Average | 31 | — | +-4.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PAYC below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-03-20, Paycom Software Inc. (PAYC) is trading 45.9% below its 200-week moving average of $230.72. The current price is $124.82.
What is PAYC's 200-week moving average price?
Paycom Software Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $230.72 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PAYC drops below its 200-week moving average?
PAYC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -4.5%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 31 weeks on average.
Is PAYC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PAYC as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 30. Free cash flow yield is 3.8%. Return on equity is 27.4%. Price-to-book is 3.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PAYC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 11.1 years, $100 invested in PAYC would have grown to $405, compared to $379 for the S&P 500. That's 13.5% annualized vs 12.8% for the index. PAYC has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does PAYC pay a dividend?
Yes. Paycom Software Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 120.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20