PATK
Patrick Industries, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Recreational Vehicles Investor Relations →
Patrick Industries, Inc. (PATK) closed at $87.37 as of 2026-06-19, trading 18.3% above its 200-week moving average of $73.84. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 17.8% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 29, PATK is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.89 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2365 weeks of data, PATK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PATK at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +38.0%.
With a market cap of $2.9 billion, PATK is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.9%. Return on equity stands at 11.7%. The stock trades at 2.4x book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PATK would have grown to $7584, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.8% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming PATK as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 11 open-market purchases totaling $3,698,514. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PATK vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PATK Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying PATK when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +36.5% after 12 months (median +26.0%), compared to +10.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 65% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +58.4% vs +30.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PATK crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices PATK would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where PATK's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-30.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $81.42 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $94.80 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $113.45 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $141.23 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $187.03 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from PATK's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
PATK has crossed below its 200-week MA 29 times with an average 1-year return of +38.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Apr 1981 | 6 | 25.2% | +23.1% | +69909.3% |
| Jan 1982 | Apr 1982 | 15 | 26.2% | +194.1% | +53436.4% |
| Jun 1982 | Aug 1982 | 10 | 25.0% | +588.2% | +53436.4% |
| Aug 1986 | Aug 1986 | 1 | 2.0% | -9.7% | +12540.6% |
| Sep 1986 | Apr 1988 | 85 | 34.1% | -5.6% | +12540.6% |
| May 1988 | Jun 1988 | 2 | 0.9% | N/A | +12718.6% |
| Nov 1988 | Nov 1988 | 2 | 6.9% | -27.0% | +12198.9% |
| Jan 1989 | Feb 1989 | 7 | 8.8% | -27.0% | +12198.9% |
| Mar 1989 | Feb 1992 | 151 | 58.4% | -32.0% | +12035.0% |
| Feb 1992 | Apr 1992 | 8 | 5.6% | +98.2% | +16599.5% |
| Jun 1992 | Aug 1992 | 10 | 12.3% | +218.0% | +18102.4% |
| Sep 1998 | Sep 1998 | 1 | 0.6% | -1.7% | +2624.4% |
| Mar 1999 | Jun 1999 | 13 | 17.1% | -38.5% | +2705.9% |
| Aug 1999 | Apr 2002 | 140 | 58.8% | -49.1% | +2497.4% |
| May 2002 | May 2002 | 2 | 1.8% | -25.6% | +3594.7% |
| Jun 2002 | Sep 2003 | 69 | 24.1% | -29.6% | +3602.7% |
| Aug 2005 | Aug 2005 | 1 | 1.9% | +46.3% | +3887.8% |
| Nov 2007 | Nov 2011 | 212 | 97.0% | -83.1% | +3137.2% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 1 | 0.6% | +8.7% | +248.1% |
| Nov 2018 | Feb 2019 | 13 | 35.2% | +21.2% | +261.8% |
| Mar 2019 | Mar 2019 | 1 | 8.4% | -52.3% | +263.9% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 4 | 10.9% | +0.4% | +243.7% |
| Jul 2019 | Oct 2019 | 16 | 26.2% | +30.0% | +223.6% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 11 | 60.7% | +80.3% | +212.5% |
| Apr 2022 | Apr 2022 | 1 | 2.5% | +16.4% | +152.5% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 1.6% | +23.2% | +149.7% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 6 | 12.4% | +38.2% | +149.3% |
| Aug 2022 | Aug 2022 | 1 | 0.7% | +52.5% | +148.0% |
| Aug 2022 | Dec 2022 | 16 | 24.7% | +44.5% | +150.8% |
| Average | 28 | — | +38.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PATK below its 200-week moving average?
No. Patrick Industries, Inc. (PATK) is currently 18.3% above its 200-week moving average of $73.84. It would need to fall to $73.84 to cross below the line.
What is PATK's 200-week moving average price?
Patrick Industries, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $73.84 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PATK drops below its 200-week moving average?
PATK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +38.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 28 weeks on average.
Is PATK a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PATK as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 29 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 3.9%. Return on equity is 11.7%. Price-to-book is 2.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PATK compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in PATK would have grown to $7584, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 13.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. PATK has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19