PAGS
PagSeguro Digital Ltd. Technology - Software - Infrastructure Investor Relations →
PagSeguro Digital Ltd. (PAGS) closed at $8.82 as of 2026-06-19, trading 8.3% below its 200-week moving average of $9.62. This places PAGS in the deep value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -7.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 47, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.83 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 390 weeks of data, PAGS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times. On average, these episodes lasted 38 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PAGS at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +30.2%.
With a market cap of $2.5 billion, PAGS is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 212.2%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 14.5%. The stock trades at 0.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 13.7% over the past three years.
Over the past 7.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PAGS would have grown to $45, compared to $336 for the S&P 500. PAGS has returned -9.9% annualized vs 17.3% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $4,967,552. Notably, these purchases occurred while PAGS is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 55.2% compound annual rate, with 1 consecutive year of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PAGS vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PAGS Crosses Below the Line?
Across 6 historical episodes, buying PAGS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +29.8% after 12 months (median +61.0%), compared to +13.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 60% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +16.6% vs +40.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PAGS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from PAGS's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
PAGS has crossed below its 200-week MA 7 times with an average 1-year return of +30.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2018 | Mar 2019 | 10 | 28.8% | +71.6% | -54.7% |
| Apr 2019 | May 2019 | 4 | 10.1% | -14.6% | -63.2% |
| Dec 2019 | Dec 2019 | 2 | 10.0% | +67.1% | -67.7% |
| Feb 2020 | May 2020 | 13 | 50.1% | +85.1% | -70.3% |
| Oct 2021 | Jan 2026 | 224 | 77.2% | -58.1% | -74.6% |
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | 4 | 6.5% | N/A | -8.3% |
| May 2026 | Ongoing | 6+ | 11.8% | Ongoing | -0.5% |
| Average | 38 | — | +30.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PAGS below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, PagSeguro Digital Ltd. (PAGS) is trading 8.3% below its 200-week moving average of $9.62. The current price is $8.82.
What is PAGS's 200-week moving average price?
PagSeguro Digital Ltd.'s 200-week moving average is $9.62 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PAGS drops below its 200-week moving average?
PAGS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +30.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 38 weeks on average.
Is PAGS a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PAGS as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 47. Free cash flow yield is 212.2%. Return on equity is 14.5%. Price-to-book is 0.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PAGS compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 7.6 years, $100 invested in PAGS would have grown to $45, compared to $336 for the S&P 500. That's -9.9% annualized vs 17.3% for the index. PAGS has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does PAGS pay a dividend?
Yes. PagSeguro Digital Ltd. currently pays a dividend yield of 1158.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19