PAGP
Plains GP Holdings, L.P. Energy - Oil & Gas Midstream Investor Relations →
Plains GP Holdings, L.P. (PAGP) closed at $27.67 as of 2026-09-18, trading 69.4% above its 200-week moving average of $16.34. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 72.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 69, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.86 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 626 weeks of data, PAGP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times. On average, these episodes lasted 63 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -30.3%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $6.4 billion, PAGP is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 22.3%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 8.3%. The stock trades at 3.5x book value.
Over the past 12.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PAGP would have grown to $80, compared to $472 for the S&P 500. PAGP has returned -1.8% annualized vs 13.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 6.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PAGP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PAGP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 6 historical episodes, buying PAGP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -36.0% after 12 months (median -52.0%), compared to +11.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 17% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -22.5% vs +37.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PAGP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices PAGP would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where PAGP's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $22.51 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $23.77 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $25.17 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $26.74 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $28.53 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | $0.44 | $0.41 | -6.3% |
| 2026-05-08 | $0.67 | $1.12 | +65.8% |
| 2026-02-06 | $0.46 | $0.36 | -21.7% |
| 2025-11-05 | $0.40 | $0.83 | +107.4% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from PAGP's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
PAGP has crossed below its 200-week MA 6 times with an average 1-year return of +-30.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2014 | Oct 2014 | 1 | 3.8% | -25.4% | -9.4% |
| Nov 2014 | Feb 2015 | 13 | 10.4% | -49.2% | -9.8% |
| Jun 2015 | May 2019 | 204 | 73.3% | -57.3% | -12.6% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 3 | 5.9% | -53.7% | +100.2% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2022 | 157 | 73.7% | -58.5% | +113.1% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 2 | 6.4% | +62.5% | +237.4% |
| Average | 63 | — | +-30.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PAGP below its 200-week moving average?
No. Plains GP Holdings, L.P. (PAGP) is currently 69.4% above its 200-week moving average of $16.34. It would need to fall to $16.34 to cross below the line.
What is PAGP's 200-week moving average price?
Plains GP Holdings, L.P.'s 200-week moving average is $16.34 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PAGP drops below its 200-week moving average?
PAGP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -30.3%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 63 weeks on average.
Is PAGP a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PAGP as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 69. Free cash flow yield is 22.3%. Return on equity is 8.3%. Price-to-book is 3.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PAGP compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 12.1 years, $100 invested in PAGP would have grown to $80, compared to $472 for the S&P 500. That's -1.8% annualized vs 13.7% for the index. PAGP has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does PAGP pay a dividend?
Yes. Plains GP Holdings, L.P. currently pays a dividend yield of 590.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18