PAG
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Auto & Truck Dealerships Investor Relations →
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) closed at $212.61 as of 2026-09-18, trading 40.3% above its 200-week moving average of $151.57. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 42.9% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 73, PAG is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.00 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1512 weeks of data, PAG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times. On average, these episodes lasted 20 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PAG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +26.1%.
With a market cap of $14.0 billion, PAG is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.6%. Return on equity stands at 15.8%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.6% over the past three years.
Over the past 29.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PAG would have grown to $2546, compared to $1327 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.8% vs 9.3% for the index — confirming PAG as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -17.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PAG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PAG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying PAG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +31.0% after 12 months (median +16.0%), compared to +10.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 70% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +50.4% vs +29.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PAG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices PAG would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where PAG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $189.75 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $199.69 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $210.72 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $223.04 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $236.89 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | $3.39 | $3.62 | +6.7% |
| 2026-04-29 | $2.88 | $3.05 | +5.7% |
| 2026-02-11 | $3.09 | $2.85 | -7.9% |
| 2025-10-29 | $3.40 | $3.23 | -5.0% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from PAG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
PAG has crossed below its 200-week MA 21 times with an average 1-year return of +26.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1997 | Jun 1998 | 35 | 53.0% | -32.5% | +3157.0% |
| Jul 1998 | Apr 2001 | 144 | 68.0% | -38.3% | +3314.1% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 9.8% | +37.3% | +6044.6% |
| Oct 2002 | Oct 2002 | 1 | 8.2% | +125.8% | +5398.0% |
| Oct 2002 | Nov 2002 | 3 | 8.7% | +97.0% | +4935.0% |
| Dec 2002 | Apr 2003 | 19 | 21.0% | +88.3% | +4989.1% |
| Dec 2007 | Feb 2008 | 7 | 20.8% | -59.4% | +1667.3% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2009 | 57 | 71.0% | -4.7% | +1691.7% |
| Aug 2009 | Nov 2010 | 65 | 31.2% | -22.2% | +1691.2% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 8 | 20.9% | +52.9% | +702.8% |
| Mar 2016 | Aug 2016 | 20 | 21.0% | +23.1% | +624.1% |
| May 2017 | Jun 2017 | 7 | 4.6% | +13.7% | +534.3% |
| Jul 2017 | Sep 2017 | 5 | 8.1% | +24.4% | +530.3% |
| Mar 2018 | Apr 2018 | 4 | 1.6% | +2.1% | +510.5% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 2 | 2.0% | +4.2% | +491.4% |
| Nov 2018 | Jan 2019 | 8 | 10.8% | +24.7% | +498.2% |
| Feb 2019 | Feb 2019 | 1 | 2.5% | +22.7% | +505.8% |
| Mar 2019 | Mar 2019 | 3 | 2.4% | +8.9% | +505.8% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 1 | 0.8% | +16.7% | +498.4% |
| Mar 2020 | Jul 2020 | 18 | 49.1% | +138.0% | +581.5% |
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | 1 | 1.4% | N/A | +53.5% |
| Average | 20 | — | +26.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PAG below its 200-week moving average?
No. Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) is currently 40.3% above its 200-week moving average of $151.57. It would need to fall to $151.57 to cross below the line.
What is PAG's 200-week moving average price?
Penske Automotive Group, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $151.57 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PAG drops below its 200-week moving average?
PAG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +26.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 20 weeks on average.
Is PAG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PAG as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 73 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 1.6%. Return on equity is 15.8%. Price-to-book is 2.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PAG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 29.1 years, $100 invested in PAG would have grown to $2546, compared to $1327 for the S&P 500. That's 11.8% annualized vs 9.3% for the index. PAG has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does PAG pay a dividend?
Yes. Penske Automotive Group, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 271.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18