PAG
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Auto & Truck Dealerships Investor Relations →
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) closed at $169.84 as of 2026-05-01, trading 17.8% above its 200-week moving average of $144.20. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 11.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 58, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.96 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1492 weeks of data, PAG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PAG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +26.4%.
With a market cap of $11.2 billion, PAG is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 16.5%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.6% over the past three years.
Over the past 28.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PAG would have grown to $2003, compared to $1251 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.0% vs 9.2% for the index — confirming PAG as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -17.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PAG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PAG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying PAG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +30.5% after 12 months (median +16.0%), compared to +11.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 71% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +50.2% vs +31.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PAG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
PAG has crossed below its 200-week MA 22 times with an average 1-year return of +26.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1997 | Jun 1998 | 35 | 53.0% | -32.5% | +2462.4% |
| Jul 1998 | Apr 2001 | 144 | 68.0% | -38.3% | +2586.0% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 9.8% | +37.3% | +4734.1% |
| Oct 2002 | Oct 2002 | 1 | 8.2% | +125.8% | +4225.5% |
| Oct 2002 | Nov 2002 | 3 | 8.7% | +97.0% | +3861.2% |
| Dec 2002 | Apr 2003 | 19 | 21.0% | +88.3% | +3903.7% |
| Dec 2007 | Feb 2008 | 7 | 20.8% | -59.4% | +1290.4% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2009 | 57 | 71.0% | -4.7% | +1309.6% |
| Aug 2009 | Nov 2010 | 65 | 31.2% | -22.2% | +1309.2% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 8 | 20.8% | +52.9% | +531.6% |
| Mar 2016 | Aug 2016 | 20 | 21.0% | +23.1% | +469.7% |
| May 2017 | Jun 2017 | 7 | 4.5% | +13.7% | +399.1% |
| Jul 2017 | Sep 2017 | 5 | 8.1% | +24.4% | +395.9% |
| Mar 2018 | Apr 2018 | 4 | 1.6% | +2.1% | +380.3% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 2 | 2.0% | +4.2% | +365.2% |
| Nov 2018 | Nov 2018 | 1 | 1.5% | +24.7% | +370.7% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 5 | 10.7% | +31.0% | +400.7% |
| Feb 2019 | Feb 2019 | 1 | 3.3% | +23.8% | +380.7% |
| Mar 2019 | Mar 2019 | 3 | 2.3% | +8.9% | +376.6% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 1 | 0.8% | +16.7% | +370.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Jul 2020 | 18 | 49.0% | +138.0% | +436.1% |
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | 1 | 1.4% | N/A | +20.8% |
| Average | 18 | — | +26.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PAG below its 200-week moving average?
No. Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) is currently 17.8% above its 200-week moving average of $144.20. It would need to fall to $144.20 to cross below the line.
What is PAG's 200-week moving average price?
Penske Automotive Group, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $144.20 as of 2026-05-01. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PAG drops below its 200-week moving average?
PAG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +26.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 18 weeks on average.
Is PAG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PAG as of 2026-05-01: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 58. Return on equity is 16.5%. Price-to-book is 2.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PAG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 28.7 years, $100 invested in PAG would have grown to $2003, compared to $1251 for the S&P 500. That's 11.0% annualized vs 9.2% for the index. PAG has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does PAG pay a dividend?
Yes. Penske Automotive Group, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 330.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-01