PAG
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Auto & Truck Dealerships Investor Relations →
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) closed at $140.60 as of 2026-03-20, trading 1.4% below its 200-week moving average of $142.54. This places PAG in the below line zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 2.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 32, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.0x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 1486 weeks of data, PAG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PAG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +26.4%.
With a market cap of $9.3 billion, PAG is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.3%. Return on equity stands at 17.1%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.6% over the past three years.
Over the past 28.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PAG would have grown to $1658, compared to $1129 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 10.3% vs 8.8% for the index — confirming PAG as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -17.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PAG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PAG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying PAG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +30.5% after 12 months (median +16.0%), compared to +11.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 71% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +50.2% vs +31.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PAG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
PAG has crossed below its 200-week MA 22 times with an average 1-year return of +26.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1997 | Jun 1998 | 35 | 53.0% | -32.5% | +2021.2% |
| Jul 1998 | Apr 2001 | 144 | 68.0% | -38.3% | +2123.6% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 9.8% | +37.3% | +3901.9% |
| Oct 2002 | Oct 2002 | 1 | 8.2% | +125.8% | +3480.8% |
| Oct 2002 | Nov 2002 | 3 | 8.7% | +97.0% | +3179.2% |
| Dec 2002 | Apr 2003 | 19 | 21.0% | +88.3% | +3214.4% |
| Dec 2007 | Feb 2008 | 7 | 20.8% | -59.4% | +1051.0% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2009 | 57 | 71.0% | -4.7% | +1066.9% |
| Aug 2009 | Nov 2010 | 65 | 31.2% | -22.2% | +1066.6% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 8 | 20.8% | +52.9% | +422.9% |
| Mar 2016 | Aug 2016 | 20 | 21.0% | +23.1% | +371.6% |
| May 2017 | Jun 2017 | 7 | 4.5% | +13.7% | +313.1% |
| Jul 2017 | Sep 2017 | 5 | 8.1% | +24.4% | +310.5% |
| Mar 2018 | Apr 2018 | 4 | 1.6% | +2.1% | +297.6% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 2 | 2.0% | +4.2% | +285.1% |
| Nov 2018 | Nov 2018 | 1 | 1.5% | +24.7% | +289.6% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 5 | 10.7% | +31.0% | +314.5% |
| Feb 2019 | Feb 2019 | 1 | 3.3% | +23.8% | +298.0% |
| Mar 2019 | Mar 2019 | 3 | 2.3% | +8.9% | +294.5% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 1 | 0.8% | +16.7% | +289.7% |
| Mar 2020 | Jul 2020 | 18 | 49.0% | +138.0% | +343.8% |
| Mar 2026 | Ongoing | 1+ | 1.4% | Ongoing | N/A |
| Average | 18 | — | +26.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PAG below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-03-20, Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) is trading 1.4% below its 200-week moving average of $142.54. The current price is $140.60.
What is PAG's 200-week moving average price?
Penske Automotive Group, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $142.54 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PAG drops below its 200-week moving average?
PAG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +26.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 18 weeks on average.
Is PAG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PAG as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 32. Free cash flow yield is 3.3%. Return on equity is 17.1%. Price-to-book is 1.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PAG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 28.6 years, $100 invested in PAG would have grown to $1658, compared to $1129 for the S&P 500. That's 10.3% annualized vs 8.8% for the index. PAG has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does PAG pay a dividend?
Yes. Penske Automotive Group, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 398.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20