PAG
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Auto & Truck Dealerships Investor Relations →
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) closed at $166.68 as of 2026-02-02, trading 17.4% above its 200-week moving average of $141.97. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 10.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 58, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 1480 weeks of data, PAG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PAG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +26.4%.
With a market cap of $11.0 billion, PAG is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.1%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 17.3%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 13.9% over the past three years.
Over the past 28.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PAG would have grown to $1949, compared to $1198 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.0% vs 9.1% for the index — confirming PAG as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Growth of $100: PAG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PAG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying PAG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +30.5% after 12 months (median +16.0%), compared to +11.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 71% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +50.2% vs +31.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PAG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
PAG has crossed below its 200-week MA 21 times with an average 1-year return of +26.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1997 | Jun 1998 | 35 | 53.0% | -32.5% | +2393.0% |
| Jul 1998 | Apr 2001 | 144 | 68.0% | -38.3% | +2513.2% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 9.8% | +37.3% | +4603.1% |
| Oct 2002 | Oct 2002 | 1 | 8.2% | +125.8% | +4108.3% |
| Oct 2002 | Nov 2002 | 3 | 8.7% | +97.0% | +3753.9% |
| Dec 2002 | Apr 2003 | 19 | 21.0% | +88.3% | +3795.2% |
| Dec 2007 | Feb 2008 | 7 | 20.8% | -59.4% | +1252.7% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2009 | 57 | 71.0% | -4.7% | +1271.4% |
| Aug 2009 | Nov 2010 | 65 | 31.2% | -22.2% | +1271.0% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 8 | 20.8% | +52.9% | +514.5% |
| Mar 2016 | Aug 2016 | 20 | 21.0% | +23.1% | +454.3% |
| May 2017 | Jun 2017 | 7 | 4.5% | +13.7% | +385.5% |
| Jul 2017 | Sep 2017 | 5 | 8.1% | +24.4% | +382.4% |
| Mar 2018 | Apr 2018 | 4 | 1.6% | +2.1% | +367.3% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 2 | 2.0% | +4.2% | +352.6% |
| Nov 2018 | Nov 2018 | 1 | 1.5% | +24.7% | +357.9% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 5 | 10.7% | +31.0% | +387.2% |
| Feb 2019 | Feb 2019 | 1 | 3.3% | +23.8% | +367.7% |
| Mar 2019 | Mar 2019 | 3 | 2.3% | +8.9% | +363.7% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 1 | 0.8% | +16.7% | +358.0% |
| Mar 2020 | Jul 2020 | 18 | 49.0% | +138.0% | +421.6% |
| Average | 19 | — | +26.4% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02