PAAS
Pan American Silver Corp. Basic Materials - Gold Investor Relations →
Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) closed at $49.00 as of 2026-06-19, trading 94.4% above its 200-week moving average of $25.20. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 92.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 44, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.79 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1570 weeks of data, PAAS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times. On average, these episodes lasted 34 weeks. Historically, investors who bought PAAS at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.4%.
With a market cap of $20.6 billion, PAAS is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.3%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 20.8%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 2.8x book value.
Share count has increased 100.2% over three years, indicating dilution. PAAS passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 30.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in PAAS would have grown to $726, compared to $1881 for the S&P 500. PAAS has returned 6.8% annualized vs 10.2% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: PAAS vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After PAAS Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying PAAS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +21.1% after 12 months (median +16.0%), compared to +21.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +28.6% vs +42.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment PAAS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from PAAS's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
PAAS has crossed below its 200-week MA 21 times with an average 1-year return of +21.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1996 | Jul 1996 | 3 | 4.0% | -9.8% | +733.0% |
| Jul 1996 | Jul 1996 | 1 | 0.1% | -15.6% | +733.0% |
| Aug 1996 | Feb 1997 | 27 | 22.4% | -13.9% | +733.0% |
| Mar 1997 | Sep 1997 | 27 | 18.9% | +38.8% | +776.1% |
| Aug 1998 | Feb 2002 | 183 | 58.2% | -28.4% | +736.4% |
| Mar 2002 | Mar 2002 | 1 | 4.4% | +37.1% | +1327.3% |
| Sep 2008 | Nov 2009 | 63 | 56.9% | -0.5% | +181.4% |
| Dec 2009 | Jan 2010 | 3 | 3.7% | +61.7% | +164.2% |
| Jan 2010 | Apr 2010 | 11 | 14.2% | +46.3% | +181.3% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 3 | 3.9% | +34.5% | +161.0% |
| Jun 2010 | Aug 2010 | 9 | 8.9% | +25.3% | +161.5% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 1 | 0.3% | -19.3% | +136.0% |
| Nov 2011 | Apr 2016 | 230 | 56.6% | -22.9% | +137.7% |
| Nov 2018 | Dec 2018 | 4 | 6.7% | +43.1% | +324.3% |
| Jan 2019 | Jan 2019 | 1 | 1.5% | +68.2% | +298.0% |
| Feb 2019 | Jul 2019 | 20 | 26.7% | +57.6% | +333.5% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 4 | 27.4% | +134.4% | +294.1% |
| Jan 2022 | Feb 2022 | 2 | 3.9% | -10.0% | +152.7% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 2 | 4.0% | -21.7% | +145.4% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2024 | 107 | 42.1% | -24.9% | +151.7% |
| Aug 2024 | Sep 2024 | 5 | 8.8% | +70.2% | +162.6% |
| Average | 34 | — | +21.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PAAS below its 200-week moving average?
No. Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) is currently 94.4% above its 200-week moving average of $25.20. It would need to fall to $25.20 to cross below the line.
What is PAAS's 200-week moving average price?
Pan American Silver Corp.'s 200-week moving average is $25.20 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when PAAS drops below its 200-week moving average?
PAAS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +21.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 34 weeks on average.
Is PAAS a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about PAAS as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 44. Free cash flow yield is 6.3%. Return on equity is 20.8%. Price-to-book is 2.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does PAAS compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 30.2 years, $100 invested in PAAS would have grown to $726, compared to $1881 for the S&P 500. That's 6.8% annualized vs 10.2% for the index. PAAS has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19