OZK
Bank OZK Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
Bank OZK (OZK) closed at $47.88 as of 2026-09-18, trading 14.6% above its 200-week moving average of $41.79. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 17.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 41, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.88 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1474 weeks of data, OZK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 41 weeks. Historically, investors who bought OZK at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +4.3%.
With a market cap of $5.2 billion, OZK is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 11.3%. The stock trades at 0.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.8% over the past three years.
Over the past 28.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in OZK would have grown to $4788, compared to $1094 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.6% vs 8.8% for the index — confirming OZK as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -0.2% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: OZK vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After OZK Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying OZK when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +4.5% after 12 months (median +13.0%), compared to +10.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +4.2% vs +15.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment OZK crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices OZK would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where OZK's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-15.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $48.04 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $49.74 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $51.58 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $53.55 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $55.68 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | $1.48 | $1.49 | +0.9% |
| 2026-04-21 | $1.43 | $1.44 | +0.9% |
| 2026-01-20 | $1.55 | $1.53 | -1.3% |
| 2025-10-15 | $1.66 | $1.59 | -4.3% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from OZK's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
OZK has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +4.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1998 | Jun 2001 | 149 | 48.7% | -15.0% | +5634.9% |
| Mar 2007 | Apr 2007 | 4 | 1.7% | -22.8% | +979.7% |
| May 2007 | Aug 2007 | 14 | 7.4% | -16.8% | +956.9% |
| Oct 2007 | Oct 2008 | 54 | 48.8% | -0.2% | +950.4% |
| Nov 2008 | Dec 2009 | 56 | 40.1% | -9.0% | +966.8% |
| Jul 2018 | Jan 2021 | 130 | 57.8% | -25.5% | +54.9% |
| Apr 2023 | Apr 2023 | 1 | 1.3% | +37.9% | +64.5% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 2 | 5.6% | +45.3% | +62.3% |
| Jun 2024 | Jun 2024 | 1 | 0.1% | +22.9% | +38.0% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 2 | 5.1% | +26.3% | +33.1% |
| Average | 41 | — | +4.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OZK below its 200-week moving average?
No. Bank OZK (OZK) is currently 14.6% above its 200-week moving average of $41.79. It would need to fall to $41.79 to cross below the line.
What is OZK's 200-week moving average price?
Bank OZK's 200-week moving average is $41.79 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when OZK drops below its 200-week moving average?
OZK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +4.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 41 weeks on average.
Is OZK a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about OZK as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 41. Return on equity is 11.3%. Price-to-book is 0.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does OZK compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 28.3 years, $100 invested in OZK would have grown to $4788, compared to $1094 for the S&P 500. That's 14.6% annualized vs 8.8% for the index. OZK has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does OZK pay a dividend?
Yes. Bank OZK currently pays a dividend yield of 389.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18