OXM
Oxford Industries, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Apparel Manufacturing Investor Relations →
Oxford Industries, Inc. (OXM) closed at $37.92 as of 2026-07-31, trading 44.4% below its 200-week moving average of $68.19. This places OXM in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -43.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 41, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.80 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2371 weeks of data, OXM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 33 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought OXM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +10.2%.
With a market cap of $566 million, OXM is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.3%. Return on equity stands at -7.0%. The stock trades at 1.1x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.0% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in OXM would have grown to $863, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. OXM has returned 6.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -47.7% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: OXM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After OXM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 22 historical episodes, buying OXM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +7.5% after 12 months (median +0.0%), compared to +15.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 45% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +39.4% vs +29.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment OXM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices OXM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where OXM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-09-09.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $35.59 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $38.60 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $42.18 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $46.48 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $51.76 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from OXM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
OXM has crossed below its 200-week MA 33 times with an average 1-year return of +10.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1984 | Jan 1985 | 3 | 7.3% | +27.2% | +1990.8% |
| Mar 1985 | May 1985 | 9 | 9.3% | +43.9% | +1862.8% |
| Jul 1985 | Aug 1985 | 3 | 7.2% | +29.4% | +1785.8% |
| Sep 1985 | Oct 1985 | 7 | 12.5% | +14.6% | +1903.7% |
| Dec 1985 | Dec 1985 | 1 | 2.9% | +5.6% | +1681.1% |
| Sep 1986 | Feb 1987 | 22 | 13.8% | +15.8% | +1476.7% |
| Mar 1987 | Apr 1987 | 1 | 2.4% | -14.2% | +1490.2% |
| May 1987 | May 1987 | 1 | 1.7% | -27.2% | +1490.2% |
| Oct 1987 | Aug 1989 | 97 | 33.4% | -15.3% | +1548.2% |
| Sep 1989 | Oct 1989 | 2 | 0.0% | -34.4% | +1632.8% |
| Jan 1990 | Apr 1991 | 61 | 36.4% | -24.3% | +1746.7% |
| Jan 1995 | Jan 1995 | 4 | 4.9% | -4.0% | +826.6% |
| Mar 1995 | Dec 1996 | 90 | 24.7% | -5.0% | +806.2% |
| Feb 1999 | Mar 1999 | 4 | 7.9% | -27.3% | +551.9% |
| Aug 1999 | Jul 2001 | 104 | 39.6% | -11.9% | +535.1% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 16.5% | +14.5% | +645.4% |
| Sep 2002 | Sep 2002 | 3 | 3.6% | +221.9% | +566.4% |
| Jul 2007 | Aug 2010 | 162 | 89.4% | -44.8% | +47.1% |
| Feb 2015 | Feb 2015 | 1 | 0.7% | +19.9% | -4.3% |
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2015 | 1 | 3.1% | +46.6% | -2.6% |
| Nov 2015 | Nov 2015 | 1 | 0.5% | +16.6% | -16.7% |
| Dec 2015 | Dec 2015 | 2 | 1.3% | +4.8% | -16.5% |
| Jan 2016 | Jan 2016 | 3 | 8.7% | +4.5% | -10.1% |
| Apr 2016 | Apr 2016 | 2 | 5.5% | -6.9% | -15.3% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 3 | 5.5% | -4.3% | -17.2% |
| Jun 2016 | Aug 2016 | 12 | 12.6% | +5.4% | -15.1% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 3 | 5.1% | +6.6% | -19.4% |
| Dec 2016 | Oct 2017 | 45 | 19.9% | +15.2% | -20.3% |
| Oct 2017 | Nov 2017 | 1 | 1.3% | +48.9% | -21.7% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 4.6% | +20.6% | -26.0% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 3 | 2.8% | -29.6% | -28.7% |
| Feb 2020 | Dec 2020 | 45 | 53.3% | +13.0% | -30.2% |
| Aug 2024 | Ongoing | 103+ | 57.5% | Ongoing | -52.5% |
| Average | 24 | — | +10.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OXM below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, Oxford Industries, Inc. (OXM) is trading 44.4% below its 200-week moving average of $68.19. The current price is $37.92.
What is OXM's 200-week moving average price?
Oxford Industries, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $68.19 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when OXM drops below its 200-week moving average?
OXM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 33 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +10.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is OXM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about OXM as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 41. Free cash flow yield is 2.3%. Return on equity is -7.0%. Price-to-book is 1.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does OXM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in OXM would have grown to $863, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 6.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. OXM has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does OXM pay a dividend?
Yes. Oxford Industries, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 732.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31