OWL
Blue Owl Capital Inc. Financial Services - Asset Management Investor Relations →
Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL) closed at $9.84 as of 2026-09-18, trading 28.6% below its 200-week moving average of $13.78. This places OWL in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -23.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 52, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.97 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 252 weeks of data, OWL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought OWL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +26.8%.
With a market cap of $15.4 billion, OWL is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 10.1%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 5.7%. The stock trades at 3.4x book value.
Share count has increased 49.9% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 4.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in OWL would have grown to $82, compared to $179 for the S&P 500. OWL has returned -4.0% annualized vs 12.5% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 4 open-market purchases totaling $7,142,238. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects. Notably, these purchases occurred while OWL is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 21.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: OWL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After OWL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 8 historical episodes, buying OWL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +30.2% after 12 months (median +30.0%), compared to +13.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 83% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +72.2% vs +37.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment OWL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices OWL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where OWL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $8.65 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $9.39 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $10.28 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $11.35 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $12.66 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | $0.22 | $0.22 | +1.8% |
| 2026-04-29 | $0.18 | $0.19 | +5.4% |
| 2026-02-05 | $0.22 | $0.24 | +6.8% |
| 2025-10-30 | $0.22 | $0.22 | -0.6% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from OWL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
OWL has crossed below its 200-week MA 8 times with an average 1-year return of +26.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2022 | Mar 2022 | 10 | 7.9% | +6.1% | +1.1% |
| Apr 2022 | Aug 2022 | 14 | 19.4% | -2.0% | +2.5% |
| Aug 2022 | Nov 2022 | 12 | 28.8% | -1.6% | +1.1% |
| Nov 2022 | Jan 2023 | 7 | 11.0% | +21.4% | +1.6% |
| Mar 2023 | Jul 2023 | 18 | 13.1% | +73.1% | +10.7% |
| Aug 2023 | Aug 2023 | 2 | 1.7% | +64.1% | +2.8% |
| Nov 2025 | Nov 2025 | 1 | 1.9% | N/A | -25.4% |
| Jan 2026 | Ongoing | 34+ | 42.1% | Ongoing | -23.3% |
| Average | 12 | — | +26.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OWL below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL) is trading 28.6% below its 200-week moving average of $13.78. The current price is $9.84.
What is OWL's 200-week moving average price?
Blue Owl Capital Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $13.78 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when OWL drops below its 200-week moving average?
OWL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +26.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 12 weeks on average.
Is OWL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about OWL as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 52. Free cash flow yield is 10.1%. Return on equity is 5.7%. Price-to-book is 3.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does OWL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 4.9 years, $100 invested in OWL would have grown to $82, compared to $179 for the S&P 500. That's -4.0% annualized vs 12.5% for the index. OWL has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does OWL pay a dividend?
Yes. Blue Owl Capital Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 914.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18