OVV
Ovintiv Inc. Energy - Oil & Gas E&P Investor Relations →
Ovintiv Inc. (OVV) closed at $52.41 as of 2026-06-19, trading 23.9% above its 200-week moving average of $42.30. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 35.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 47, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.03 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1214 weeks of data, OVV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times. On average, these episodes lasted 30 weeks. Historically, investors who bought OVV at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +5.5%.
With a market cap of $14.7 billion, OVV is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.0%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 7.1%. The stock trades at 1.3x book value.
Share count has increased 3.1% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 23.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in OVV would have grown to $209, compared to $1353 for the S&P 500. OVV has returned 3.2% annualized vs 11.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -9.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: OVV vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After OVV Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying OVV when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +5.2% after 12 months (median -1.0%), compared to +10.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 42% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -18.5% vs +24.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment OVV crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices OVV would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where OVV's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-23.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $47.56 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $55.49 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $66.61 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $83.30 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $111.14 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from OVV's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
OVV has crossed below its 200-week MA 19 times with an average 1-year return of +5.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2008 | May 2009 | 33 | 29.9% | +61.2% | -20.8% |
| Jun 2009 | Sep 2009 | 12 | 14.6% | +30.1% | -41.3% |
| Nov 2009 | Dec 2009 | 4 | 48.1% | +4.1% | -43.9% |
| Aug 2010 | Sep 2010 | 7 | 7.7% | -8.3% | -45.7% |
| Oct 2010 | Jan 2011 | 12 | 8.2% | -21.9% | -43.9% |
| Jun 2011 | Jun 2011 | 1 | 4.1% | -28.6% | -47.7% |
| Jul 2011 | Mar 2014 | 140 | 38.7% | -24.6% | -48.3% |
| Oct 2014 | Oct 2017 | 160 | 80.1% | -54.5% | -31.1% |
| Nov 2017 | Dec 2017 | 5 | 5.9% | -35.4% | +9.5% |
| Jan 2018 | Apr 2018 | 10 | 11.6% | -40.1% | +12.2% |
| Oct 2018 | May 2021 | 135 | 94.2% | -50.7% | +51.1% |
| Jun 2021 | Jun 2021 | 1 | 6.7% | +65.8% | +107.1% |
| Jul 2021 | Sep 2021 | 9 | 22.2% | +60.7% | +127.3% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 1 | 1.0% | +15.9% | +43.3% |
| Oct 2024 | Nov 2024 | 1 | 1.3% | -0.8% | +41.1% |
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2024 | 2 | 5.7% | +1.2% | +44.5% |
| Mar 2025 | Mar 2025 | 2 | 6.3% | +39.6% | +41.6% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 10 | 20.3% | +84.7% | +64.4% |
| Jun 2025 | Jan 2026 | 31 | 14.2% | N/A | +40.0% |
| Average | 30 | — | +5.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OVV below its 200-week moving average?
No. Ovintiv Inc. (OVV) is currently 23.9% above its 200-week moving average of $42.30. It would need to fall to $42.30 to cross below the line.
What is OVV's 200-week moving average price?
Ovintiv Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $42.30 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when OVV drops below its 200-week moving average?
OVV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +5.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 30 weeks on average.
Is OVV a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about OVV as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 47. Free cash flow yield is 6.0%. Return on equity is 7.1%. Price-to-book is 1.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does OVV compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 23.3 years, $100 invested in OVV would have grown to $209, compared to $1353 for the S&P 500. That's 3.2% annualized vs 11.8% for the index. OVV has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does OVV pay a dividend?
Yes. Ovintiv Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 224.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19