OVV
Ovintiv Inc. Energy - Oil & Gas E&P Investor Relations →
Ovintiv Inc. (OVV) closed at $62.37 as of 2026-09-18, trading 44.9% above its 200-week moving average of $43.06. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 47.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 59, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.11 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1227 weeks of data, OVV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times. On average, these episodes lasted 29 weeks. Historically, investors who bought OVV at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +8.1%.
With a market cap of $17.3 billion, OVV is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.1%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 8.4%. The stock trades at 1.5x book value.
Share count has increased 3.1% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 23.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in OVV would have grown to $250, compared to $1378 for the S&P 500. OVV has returned 4.0% annualized vs 11.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -9.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: OVV vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After OVV Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying OVV when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +5.5% after 12 months (median +0.0%), compared to +10.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 45% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -14.9% vs +24.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment OVV crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices OVV would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where OVV's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $45.83 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $50.13 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $55.33 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $61.72 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $69.79 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | $1.94 | $1.74 | -10.5% |
| 2026-05-11 | $1.83 | $2.00 | +9.2% |
| 2026-02-23 | $1.01 | $1.39 | +37.0% |
| 2025-11-04 | $0.96 | $1.03 | +8.1% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from OVV's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
OVV has crossed below its 200-week MA 20 times with an average 1-year return of +8.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2008 | May 2009 | 33 | 29.9% | +61.2% | -5.3% |
| Jun 2009 | Sep 2009 | 12 | 14.7% | +30.1% | -29.8% |
| Nov 2009 | Dec 2009 | 4 | 4.1% | +4.1% | -33.0% |
| Mar 2010 | Mar 2010 | 1 | 0.2% | +20.7% | -36.5% |
| Aug 2010 | Sep 2010 | 7 | 7.9% | -8.3% | -35.0% |
| Oct 2010 | Jan 2011 | 12 | 8.4% | -21.9% | -33.0% |
| Jun 2011 | Jun 2011 | 1 | 4.3% | -28.6% | -37.5% |
| Jul 2011 | Mar 2014 | 140 | 38.9% | -24.6% | -38.2% |
| Oct 2014 | Oct 2017 | 160 | 80.1% | -54.5% | -17.6% |
| Nov 2017 | Dec 2017 | 5 | 5.8% | -35.4% | +31.0% |
| Jan 2018 | Apr 2018 | 10 | 11.7% | -40.1% | +34.2% |
| Oct 2018 | May 2021 | 135 | 94.2% | -50.7% | +80.6% |
| Jun 2021 | Jun 2021 | 1 | 6.4% | +66.0% | +146.8% |
| Jul 2021 | Sep 2021 | 9 | 22.2% | +60.7% | +171.7% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 1 | 1.1% | +15.9% | +71.3% |
| Oct 2024 | Nov 2024 | 1 | 1.3% | -0.8% | +68.7% |
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2024 | 2 | 5.7% | +2.0% | +72.7% |
| Mar 2025 | Mar 2025 | 2 | 6.4% | +39.6% | +69.3% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 10 | 20.4% | +84.7% | +96.6% |
| Jun 2025 | Jan 2026 | 31 | 14.3% | +42.0% | +67.3% |
| Average | 29 | — | +8.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OVV below its 200-week moving average?
No. Ovintiv Inc. (OVV) is currently 44.9% above its 200-week moving average of $43.06. It would need to fall to $43.06 to cross below the line.
What is OVV's 200-week moving average price?
Ovintiv Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $43.06 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when OVV drops below its 200-week moving average?
OVV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +8.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 29 weeks on average.
Is OVV a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about OVV as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 59. Free cash flow yield is 7.1%. Return on equity is 8.4%. Price-to-book is 1.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does OVV compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 23.6 years, $100 invested in OVV would have grown to $250, compared to $1378 for the S&P 500. That's 4.0% annualized vs 11.8% for the index. OVV has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does OVV pay a dividend?
Yes. Ovintiv Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 192.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18