OSPN
OneSpan Inc. Technology - Software - Infrastructure Investor Relations →
OneSpan Inc. (OSPN) closed at $17.51 as of 2026-09-18, trading 32.8% above its 200-week moving average of $13.18. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 28.1% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 72, OSPN is in overbought territory.
A big jump in activity this week — 3.1x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 1430 weeks of data, OSPN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times. On average, these episodes lasted 30 weeks. Historically, investors who bought OSPN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +6.0%.
With a market cap of $645 million, OSPN is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.1%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 26.5%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 2.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 6.0% over the past three years. OSPN passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 27.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in OSPN would have grown to $466, compared to $922 for the S&P 500. OSPN has returned 5.8% annualized vs 8.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 3 open-market purchases totaling $657,042.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: OSPN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After OSPN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 27 historical episodes, buying OSPN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +6.5% after 12 months (median -4.0%), compared to +10.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 42% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +26.5% vs +25.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment OSPN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices OSPN would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where OSPN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $13.21 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $15.18 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $17.84 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $21.62 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $27.45 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | $0.23 | $0.30 | +30.4% |
| 2026-04-30 | $0.35 | $0.39 | +12.7% |
| 2026-02-26 | $0.29 | $0.36 | +22.4% |
| 2025-10-30 | $0.29 | $0.33 | +14.6% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from OSPN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
OSPN has crossed below its 200-week MA 27 times with an average 1-year return of +6.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1999 | Dec 1999 | 34 | 31.6% | +253.1% | +366.1% |
| Nov 2000 | Oct 2004 | 201 | 92.5% | -79.9% | +257.2% |
| Feb 2008 | Mar 2008 | 5 | 11.3% | -53.9% | +63.5% |
| Apr 2008 | Aug 2008 | 16 | 23.7% | -30.1% | +92.0% |
| Sep 2008 | Mar 2011 | 134 | 70.7% | -35.9% | +44.7% |
| May 2011 | Jun 2011 | 6 | 8.8% | -32.0% | +68.9% |
| Jul 2011 | Jan 2012 | 27 | 46.2% | -2.7% | +92.6% |
| Apr 2012 | Jun 2012 | 9 | 16.7% | +8.2% | +139.6% |
| Jul 2012 | Jul 2012 | 1 | 5.4% | +15.4% | +145.3% |
| Oct 2012 | Dec 2012 | 9 | 12.7% | +8.2% | +156.1% |
| Dec 2012 | Feb 2013 | 6 | 5.8% | -4.0% | +133.3% |
| Aug 2013 | Apr 2014 | 37 | 17.9% | +77.4% | +129.3% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 2 | 2.4% | +7.6% | +36.5% |
| Oct 2016 | May 2018 | 81 | 33.5% | -13.6% | +27.9% |
| Jul 2018 | Aug 2018 | 2 | 2.1% | -19.0% | +7.8% |
| Oct 2018 | Feb 2019 | 19 | 27.3% | -13.7% | +10.1% |
| May 2019 | Oct 2019 | 24 | 15.1% | +29.9% | +24.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 3 | 17.5% | +65.4% | +22.3% |
| Apr 2020 | Apr 2020 | 2 | 0.2% | +66.3% | +19.6% |
| Aug 2021 | Aug 2021 | 3 | 3.6% | -41.7% | -0.1% |
| Sep 2021 | Sep 2021 | 1 | 0.2% | -53.1% | -1.1% |
| Nov 2021 | Aug 2024 | 144 | 56.1% | -25.0% | +1.2% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 2 | 3.8% | +3.8% | +24.5% |
| Sep 2024 | Oct 2024 | 4 | 5.3% | +8.8% | +25.7% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 2 | 4.3% | -19.6% | +34.1% |
| Aug 2025 | Aug 2025 | 1 | 6.3% | +35.5% | +42.5% |
| Oct 2025 | May 2026 | 29 | 21.7% | N/A | +59.9% |
| Average | 30 | — | +6.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OSPN below its 200-week moving average?
No. OneSpan Inc. (OSPN) is currently 32.8% above its 200-week moving average of $13.18. It would need to fall to $13.18 to cross below the line.
What is OSPN's 200-week moving average price?
OneSpan Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $13.18 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when OSPN drops below its 200-week moving average?
OSPN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +6.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 30 weeks on average.
Is OSPN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about OSPN as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 72 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 5.1%. Return on equity is 26.5%. Price-to-book is 2.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does OSPN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 27.5 years, $100 invested in OSPN would have grown to $466, compared to $922 for the S&P 500. That's 5.8% annualized vs 8.4% for the index. OSPN has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does OSPN pay a dividend?
Yes. OneSpan Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 290.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18