OSPN
OneSpan Inc. Technology - Software - Infrastructure Investor Relations →
OneSpan Inc. (OSPN) closed at $15.48 as of 2026-07-31, trading 18.5% above its 200-week moving average of $13.06. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 16.3% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 80, OSPN is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.92 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1423 weeks of data, OSPN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times. On average, these episodes lasted 30 weeks. Historically, investors who bought OSPN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +4.8%.
With a market cap of $574 million, OSPN is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.7%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 27.8%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 2.1x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 6.0% over the past three years. OSPN passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 27.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in OSPN would have grown to $409, compared to $902 for the S&P 500. OSPN has returned 5.3% annualized vs 8.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 5 open-market purchases totaling $711,341.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: OSPN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After OSPN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 27 historical episodes, buying OSPN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +6.2% after 12 months (median -6.0%), compared to +10.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 40% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +26.5% vs +24.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment OSPN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices OSPN would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where OSPN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $8.41 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $9.54 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $11.02 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $13.04 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $15.98 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from OSPN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
OSPN has crossed below its 200-week MA 27 times with an average 1-year return of +4.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1999 | Dec 1999 | 34 | 31.6% | +253.1% | +308.9% |
| Nov 2000 | Oct 2004 | 201 | 92.5% | -79.9% | +213.4% |
| Feb 2008 | Mar 2008 | 5 | 11.3% | -53.9% | +43.5% |
| Apr 2008 | Aug 2008 | 16 | 23.7% | -30.1% | +68.4% |
| Sep 2008 | Mar 2011 | 134 | 70.7% | -35.9% | +27.0% |
| May 2011 | Jun 2011 | 6 | 8.8% | -32.0% | +48.1% |
| Jul 2011 | Jan 2012 | 27 | 46.2% | -2.7% | +69.0% |
| Apr 2012 | Jun 2012 | 9 | 16.7% | +8.2% | +110.2% |
| Jul 2012 | Jul 2012 | 1 | 5.4% | +15.4% | +115.2% |
| Oct 2012 | Dec 2012 | 9 | 12.7% | +8.2% | +124.7% |
| Dec 2012 | Feb 2013 | 6 | 5.8% | -4.0% | +104.7% |
| Aug 2013 | Apr 2014 | 37 | 17.9% | +77.4% | +101.2% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 2 | 2.4% | +7.6% | +19.7% |
| Oct 2016 | May 2018 | 81 | 33.5% | -13.6% | +12.2% |
| Jul 2018 | Aug 2018 | 2 | 2.1% | -19.0% | -5.5% |
| Oct 2018 | Feb 2019 | 19 | 27.3% | -13.7% | -3.4% |
| May 2019 | Oct 2019 | 24 | 15.1% | +29.9% | +9.0% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 3 | 17.5% | +65.4% | +7.3% |
| Apr 2020 | Apr 2020 | 2 | 0.2% | +66.3% | +4.9% |
| Aug 2021 | Aug 2021 | 3 | 3.6% | -41.7% | -12.3% |
| Sep 2021 | Sep 2021 | 1 | 0.2% | -53.1% | -13.2% |
| Nov 2021 | Aug 2024 | 144 | 56.1% | -25.0% | -11.3% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 2 | 3.8% | +3.8% | +9.2% |
| Sep 2024 | Oct 2024 | 4 | 5.3% | +8.8% | +10.3% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 2 | 4.3% | -19.6% | +17.6% |
| Aug 2025 | Aug 2025 | 1 | 6.3% | N/A | +25.0% |
| Oct 2025 | May 2026 | 29 | 21.7% | N/A | +40.3% |
| Average | 30 | — | +4.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OSPN below its 200-week moving average?
No. OneSpan Inc. (OSPN) is currently 18.5% above its 200-week moving average of $13.06. It would need to fall to $13.06 to cross below the line.
What is OSPN's 200-week moving average price?
OneSpan Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $13.06 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when OSPN drops below its 200-week moving average?
OSPN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +4.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 30 weeks on average.
Is OSPN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about OSPN as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 80 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 7.7%. Return on equity is 27.8%. Price-to-book is 2.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does OSPN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 27.3 years, $100 invested in OSPN would have grown to $409, compared to $902 for the S&P 500. That's 5.3% annualized vs 8.4% for the index. OSPN has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does OSPN pay a dividend?
Yes. OneSpan Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 337.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31