ORRF
Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. (ORRF) closed at $42.06 as of 2026-09-18, trading 45.6% above its 200-week moving average of $28.88. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 47.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 61, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.16 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1379 weeks of data, ORRF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times. On average, these episodes lasted 45 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ORRF at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +6.1%.
With a market cap of $827 million, ORRF is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 14.8%. The stock trades at 1.3x book value.
Share count has increased 82.8% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 26.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ORRF would have grown to $473, compared to $838 for the S&P 500. ORRF has returned 6.0% annualized vs 8.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 25.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ORRF vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ORRF Crosses Below the Line?
Across 9 historical episodes, buying ORRF when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +5.8% after 12 months (median +2.0%), compared to +12.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 56% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +0.4% vs +22.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ORRF crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ORRF would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ORRF's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-20.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $39.22 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $40.81 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $42.53 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $44.40 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $46.45 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | $1.03 | $1.09 | +6.2% |
| 2026-04-21 | $1.01 | $1.12 | +11.3% |
| 2026-01-27 | $1.06 | $1.11 | +4.5% |
| 2025-10-21 | $1.05 | $1.13 | +7.6% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ORRF's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ORRF has crossed below its 200-week MA 9 times with an average 1-year return of +6.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 2.8% | +31.4% | +388.2% |
| Mar 2007 | May 2009 | 113 | 28.3% | -8.6% | +99.4% |
| Feb 2010 | Feb 2010 | 1 | 3.0% | -10.3% | +109.8% |
| Mar 2010 | Dec 2013 | 197 | 68.8% | +7.7% | +134.9% |
| Feb 2014 | Feb 2014 | 1 | 2.7% | +8.9% | +274.3% |
| Dec 2018 | Feb 2019 | 10 | 10.7% | +14.5% | +175.1% |
| Feb 2019 | Apr 2019 | 8 | 9.4% | -9.5% | +166.8% |
| Jan 2020 | Feb 2021 | 56 | 43.2% | -12.1% | +154.7% |
| Mar 2023 | Jul 2023 | 18 | 19.2% | +33.3% | +136.0% |
| Average | 45 | — | +6.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ORRF below its 200-week moving average?
No. Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. (ORRF) is currently 45.6% above its 200-week moving average of $28.88. It would need to fall to $28.88 to cross below the line.
What is ORRF's 200-week moving average price?
Orrstown Financial Services, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $28.88 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ORRF drops below its 200-week moving average?
ORRF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +6.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 45 weeks on average.
Is ORRF a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ORRF as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 61. Return on equity is 14.8%. Price-to-book is 1.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ORRF compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 26.5 years, $100 invested in ORRF would have grown to $473, compared to $838 for the S&P 500. That's 6.0% annualized vs 8.4% for the index. ORRF has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ORRF pay a dividend?
Yes. Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 286.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18