ORRF

Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →

NO
50.6% ABOVE
↑ Moving away Was 50.6% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $28.37
14-Week RSI 73
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 1.0x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 0.97

Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. (ORRF) closed at $42.73 as of 2026-07-31, trading 50.6% above its 200-week moving average of $28.37. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 50.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 73, ORRF is in overbought territory.

Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.97 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 1372 weeks of data, ORRF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times. On average, these episodes lasted 45 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ORRF at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +6.1%.

With a market cap of $840 million, ORRF is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 14.8%. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.

Share count has increased 82.8% over three years, indicating dilution.

Over the past 26.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ORRF would have grown to $477, compared to $820 for the S&P 500. ORRF has returned 6.1% annualized vs 8.3% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.

Free cash flow has been growing at a 25.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: ORRF vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After ORRF Crosses Below the Line?

Across 9 historical episodes, buying ORRF when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +5.8% after 12 months (median +2.0%), compared to +12.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 56% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +0.4% vs +22.3% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ORRF crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Bean Score Experimental

The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ORRF would reach each dislocation threshold.

Current Bean Score -1.94σ
Current FCF Yield 10.84%
Baseline Yield 12.24%
Historical σ 0.46pp

Dislocation Price Levels

Prices where ORRF's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).

LevelσPriceSignal
Deep Value+2σ$34.96Unusually cheap — potential buy zone
Value+1σ$36.29Cheap vs. own history
Fair Value+0σ$37.72Historical mean behavior
Expensive-1σ$39.27Expensive vs. own history
Deep Expensive-2σ$40.95Unusually expensive — potential trim zone

Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end

Data depth: 2 quarterly baselines, 26 price observations — Limited history (4+ quarters preferred for reliability)

Signal Accuracy Collecting Data

The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"

12 / 13 weeks minimum

Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.

Dislocation Scores Experimental

Each score measures deviation from ORRF's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.

⚠ Earnings quality deteriorating — net income is outrunning free cash flow vs this company's own norm. Cheapness signals here deserve extra scrutiny.
Yield Dislocation -0.68σ Dividend yield vs own 10-yr norm
Drawdown Score -1.31σ Distance from line vs own history
Sector-Relative -0.35σ Vs sector median this week
Buyback Acceleration -21.7pp YoY share change vs own 3-yr pace (− = accelerating)
Insider Intensity 43th TTM buys / market cap, percentile of buyers
FCF Yield vs History N/A Vs own recent annual mean
Earnings Quality Deteriorating Accrual gap trend (+11.2pp of revenue)

Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.

Historical Touches

ORRF has crossed below its 200-week MA 9 times with an average 1-year return of +6.1% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Sep 2001Sep 200112.8%+31.4%+392.5%
Mar 2007May 200911328.3%-8.6%+101.2%
Feb 2010Feb 201013.0%-10.3%+111.7%
Mar 2010Dec 201319768.8%+7.7%+137.0%
Feb 2014Feb 201412.7%+8.9%+277.6%
Dec 2018Feb 20191010.7%+14.5%+177.5%
Feb 2019Apr 201989.4%-9.5%+169.2%
Jan 2020Feb 20215643.2%-12.1%+157.0%
Mar 2023Jul 20231819.2%+33.3%+138.1%
Average45+6.1%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is ORRF below its 200-week moving average?

No. Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. (ORRF) is currently 50.6% above its 200-week moving average of $28.37. It would need to fall to $28.37 to cross below the line.

What is ORRF's 200-week moving average price?

Orrstown Financial Services, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $28.37 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when ORRF drops below its 200-week moving average?

ORRF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +6.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 45 weeks on average.

Is ORRF a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about ORRF as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 73 (overbought). Return on equity is 14.8%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does ORRF compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 26.3 years, $100 invested in ORRF would have grown to $477, compared to $820 for the S&P 500. That's 6.1% annualized vs 8.3% for the index. ORRF has underperformed the broader market over this period.

Does ORRF pay a dividend?

Yes. Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 280.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-07-31