ORLY
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Auto Parts Retail Investor Relations →
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) closed at $87.30 as of 2026-03-20, trading 20.1% above its 200-week moving average of $72.69. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 26.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 40, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.92 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1669 weeks of data, ORLY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times. On average, these episodes lasted 14 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ORLY at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +49.4%.
With a market cap of $73.7 billion, ORLY is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.4%. The stock trades at -96.2x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 10.0% over the past three years.
Over the past 32.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ORLY would have grown to $37414, compared to $2578 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 20.3% vs 10.7% for the index — confirming ORLY as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -14.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ORLY vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ORLY Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying ORLY when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +43.1% after 12 months (median +45.0%), compared to +9.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 92% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +70.5% vs +24.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ORLY crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
ORLY has crossed below its 200-week MA 12 times with an average 1-year return of +49.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1994 | May 1994 | 6 | 8.7% | +4.5% | +39808.6% |
| Aug 1994 | Feb 1995 | 28 | 8.7% | +14.6% | +42014.5% |
| Mar 1995 | Apr 1995 | 3 | 0.6% | +32.7% | +40192.2% |
| May 1995 | May 1995 | 2 | 3.1% | +58.4% | +41389.0% |
| Jan 2000 | Jul 2000 | 29 | 33.5% | +74.2% | +18238.7% |
| Aug 2000 | Oct 2000 | 11 | 11.8% | +103.0% | +16796.8% |
| Feb 2003 | Feb 2003 | 2 | 0.8% | +64.2% | +11063.7% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 3 | 13.9% | +10.9% | +5035.3% |
| Feb 2008 | Feb 2009 | 53 | 30.5% | +0.9% | +4519.0% |
| Jul 2017 | Nov 2017 | 21 | 20.1% | +63.7% | +657.6% |
| Apr 2018 | Apr 2018 | 2 | 5.5% | +80.7% | +482.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 13.9% | +85.0% | +396.5% |
| Average | 14 | — | +49.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ORLY below its 200-week moving average?
No. O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) is currently 20.1% above its 200-week moving average of $72.69. It would need to fall to $72.69 to cross below the line.
What is ORLY's 200-week moving average price?
O'Reilly Automotive Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $72.69 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ORLY drops below its 200-week moving average?
ORLY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +49.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 14 weeks on average.
Is ORLY a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ORLY as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 40. Free cash flow yield is 1.4%. Price-to-book is -96.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ORLY compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 32.1 years, $100 invested in ORLY would have grown to $37414, compared to $2578 for the S&P 500. That's 20.3% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. ORLY has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20