ORLY
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Auto Parts Retail Investor Relations →
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) closed at $94.22 as of 2026-02-02, trading 32.4% above its 200-week moving average of $71.19. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 38.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 50, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 1663 weeks of data, ORLY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times. On average, these episodes lasted 14 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ORLY at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +49.4%.
With a market cap of $79.5 billion, ORLY is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.3%. The stock trades at -103.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 14.2% over the past three years.
Over the past 32 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ORLY would have grown to $40380, compared to $2738 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 20.6% vs 10.9% for the index — confirming ORLY as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -9.8% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: ORLY vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ORLY Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying ORLY when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +43.1% after 12 months (median +45.0%), compared to +9.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 92% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +70.5% vs +24.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ORLY crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
ORLY has crossed below its 200-week MA 12 times with an average 1-year return of +49.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1994 | May 1994 | 6 | 8.7% | +4.5% | +42972.0% |
| Aug 1994 | Feb 1995 | 28 | 8.7% | +14.6% | +45352.8% |
| Mar 1995 | Apr 1995 | 3 | 0.6% | +32.7% | +43386.1% |
| May 1995 | May 1995 | 2 | 3.1% | +58.4% | +44677.8% |
| Jan 2000 | Jul 2000 | 29 | 33.5% | +74.2% | +19692.4% |
| Aug 2000 | Oct 2000 | 11 | 11.8% | +103.0% | +18136.1% |
| Feb 2003 | Feb 2003 | 2 | 0.8% | +64.2% | +11948.6% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 3 | 13.9% | +10.9% | +5442.4% |
| Feb 2008 | Feb 2009 | 53 | 30.5% | +0.9% | +4885.2% |
| Jul 2017 | Nov 2017 | 21 | 20.1% | +63.7% | +717.6% |
| Apr 2018 | Apr 2018 | 2 | 5.5% | +80.7% | +528.5% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 13.9% | +85.0% | +435.8% |
| Average | 14 | — | +49.4% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02