ORLA
Orla Mining Ltd. Basic Materials - Gold Investor Relations →
Orla Mining Ltd. (ORLA) closed at $9.44 as of 2026-07-31, trading 33.1% above its 200-week moving average of $7.09. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 21.9% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 28, ORLA is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 0.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.72 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 444 weeks of data, ORLA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 10 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ORLA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +63.2%.
With a market cap of $3.5 billion, ORLA is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 15.5%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 42.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 4.3x book value.
Share count has increased 11.2% over three years, indicating dilution. ORLA passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 8.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ORLA would have grown to $737, compared to $302 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 26.2% vs 13.7% for the index — confirming ORLA as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 107% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ORLA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ORLA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying ORLA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +54.3% after 12 months (median +51.0%), compared to +14.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 70% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +188.6% vs +31.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ORLA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ORLA would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ORLA's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-10.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $10.09 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $11.71 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $13.93 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $17.20 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $22.48 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ORLA's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ORLA has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +63.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2018 | Mar 2018 | 1 | 0.5% | -16.9% | +799.9% |
| Mar 2018 | Apr 2018 | 3 | 1.9% | -25.0% | +811.5% |
| May 2018 | Oct 2018 | 21 | 20.3% | -20.0% | +862.5% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 1 | 1.0% | +22.9% | +819.3% |
| Nov 2018 | Jul 2019 | 33 | 26.5% | +53.4% | +1038.6% |
| Jul 2022 | Jul 2022 | 3 | 13.3% | +57.4% | +257.2% |
| Sep 2023 | Apr 2024 | 27 | 26.1% | +11.2% | +165.0% |
| Apr 2024 | May 2024 | 2 | 1.7% | +166.4% | +142.6% |
| Jun 2024 | Aug 2024 | 10 | 11.6% | +182.0% | +140.1% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 1 | 1.0% | +200.5% | +142.6% |
| Average | 10 | — | +63.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ORLA below its 200-week moving average?
No. Orla Mining Ltd. (ORLA) is currently 33.1% above its 200-week moving average of $7.09. It would need to fall to $7.09 to cross below the line.
What is ORLA's 200-week moving average price?
Orla Mining Ltd.'s 200-week moving average is $7.09 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ORLA drops below its 200-week moving average?
ORLA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +63.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 10 weeks on average.
Is ORLA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ORLA as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 28 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 15.5%. Return on equity is 42.0%. Price-to-book is 4.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ORLA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 8.6 years, $100 invested in ORLA would have grown to $737, compared to $302 for the S&P 500. That's 26.2% annualized vs 13.7% for the index. ORLA has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ORLA pay a dividend?
Yes. Orla Mining Ltd. currently pays a dividend yield of 64.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31