ORI
Old Republic International Corporation Financial Services - Insurance - Property & Casualty Investor Relations →
Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) closed at $39.95 as of 2026-09-18, trading 33.0% above its 200-week moving average of $30.05. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 36.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 59, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.13 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2378 weeks of data, ORI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ORI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +9.4%.
With a market cap of $9.6 billion, ORI is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 14.7%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 18.6%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.6x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 17.0% over the past three years. ORI passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ORI would have grown to $3332, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 10.9% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming ORI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -0.2% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ORI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ORI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying ORI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +16.5% after 12 months (median +5.0%), compared to +20.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 60% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +66.5% vs +28.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ORI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ORI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ORI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-22.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $38.85 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $40.04 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $41.29 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $42.63 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $44.06 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | $0.79 | $0.76 | -4.2% |
| 2026-04-23 | $0.79 | $1.32 | +68.2% |
| 2026-01-22 | $0.89 | $0.82 | -7.9% |
| 2025-10-23 | $0.76 | $0.78 | +2.2% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ORI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ORI has crossed below its 200-week MA 20 times with an average 1-year return of +9.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1981 | Aug 1981 | 1 | 1.3% | +14.2% | +25885.8% |
| Aug 1981 | Oct 1981 | 8 | 11.4% | +27.2% | +26308.3% |
| Dec 1986 | Jan 1987 | 7 | 7.8% | -24.3% | +9411.7% |
| Feb 1987 | Jun 1987 | 18 | 18.5% | -6.3% | +9292.3% |
| Oct 1987 | Jan 1989 | 68 | 28.8% | +0.1% | +9024.9% |
| Apr 1989 | Apr 1989 | 2 | 0.9% | +1.8% | +8850.9% |
| May 1989 | May 1989 | 3 | 0.6% | +0.8% | +8850.9% |
| Jan 1990 | Feb 1990 | 2 | 1.1% | +12.9% | +8896.5% |
| Mar 1990 | Apr 1990 | 1 | 1.1% | +37.1% | +9023.3% |
| Oct 1990 | Nov 1990 | 5 | 10.4% | +64.1% | +8998.5% |
| Nov 1994 | Dec 1994 | 5 | 6.3% | +65.9% | +4009.2% |
| Feb 1999 | Mar 1999 | 2 | 0.5% | -37.8% | +1698.0% |
| Mar 1999 | Apr 1999 | 5 | 3.1% | -35.1% | +1688.9% |
| May 1999 | Jul 2000 | 61 | 41.2% | +2.0% | +1756.5% |
| Jul 2007 | Apr 2010 | 142 | 53.7% | -42.8% | +629.4% |
| Jun 2010 | Aug 2010 | 9 | 7.1% | -4.2% | +808.1% |
| Jul 2011 | Jan 2012 | 28 | 30.4% | -19.3% | +925.1% |
| Apr 2012 | Jun 2012 | 5 | 11.8% | +51.7% | +978.9% |
| Jun 2012 | Oct 2012 | 15 | 20.2% | +43.1% | +1004.0% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 35 | 26.7% | +36.2% | +267.8% |
| Average | 21 | — | +9.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ORI below its 200-week moving average?
No. Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) is currently 33.0% above its 200-week moving average of $30.05. It would need to fall to $30.05 to cross below the line.
What is ORI's 200-week moving average price?
Old Republic International Corporation's 200-week moving average is $30.05 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ORI drops below its 200-week moving average?
ORI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +9.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 21 weeks on average.
Is ORI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ORI as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 59. Free cash flow yield is 14.7%. Return on equity is 18.6%. Price-to-book is 1.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ORI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in ORI would have grown to $3332, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 10.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. ORI has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ORI pay a dividend?
Yes. Old Republic International Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 315.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18