ORCL
Oracle Corporation Technology - Enterprise Software Investor Relations →
Oracle Corporation (ORCL) closed at $147.61 as of 2026-09-18, trading 0.2% above its 200-week moving average of $147.27. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 2.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 37, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.76 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2066 weeks of data, ORCL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ORCL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +41.6%.
With a market cap of $446.3 billion, ORCL is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 41.2%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 7.2x book value.
Share count has increased 6.2% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ORCL would have grown to $23167, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 17.5% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming ORCL as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ORCL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ORCL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying ORCL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +39.7% after 12 months (median +38.0%), compared to +17.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 74% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +204.5% vs +34.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ORCL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. ORCL currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | $1.74 | $1.92 | +10.4% |
| 2026-06-10 | $1.96 | $2.11 | +7.5% |
| 2026-03-10 | $1.69 | $1.79 | +5.7% |
| 2025-12-10 | $1.64 | $2.26 | +38.0% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ORCL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ORCL has crossed below its 200-week MA 22 times with an average 1-year return of +41.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1990 | Sep 1991 | 56 | 53.3% | -3.2% | +64668.0% |
| Dec 1991 | Dec 1991 | 3 | 7.7% | +90.6% | +62644.1% |
| Apr 1992 | Apr 1992 | 3 | 5.1% | +170.8% | +56724.8% |
| Dec 1997 | Jan 1998 | 5 | 13.1% | +92.1% | +5103.3% |
| Jun 1998 | Jul 1998 | 1 | 2.5% | +152.0% | +4776.3% |
| Aug 1998 | Sep 1998 | 4 | 13.7% | +143.3% | +4584.3% |
| Mar 2001 | Apr 2001 | 4 | 13.4% | -10.4% | +1222.0% |
| May 2001 | May 2001 | 1 | 0.2% | -49.6% | +1069.2% |
| May 2001 | Jun 2001 | 3 | 7.3% | -50.1% | +1072.2% |
| Aug 2001 | Nov 2004 | 169 | 57.8% | -35.3% | +1126.3% |
| Nov 2004 | Nov 2004 | 2 | 1.2% | -1.0% | +1358.1% |
| Mar 2005 | May 2005 | 7 | 6.0% | +11.2% | +1399.3% |
| Oct 2005 | Oct 2005 | 1 | 0.7% | +51.8% | +1451.8% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 3 | 4.0% | +25.3% | +1014.6% |
| Nov 2008 | Dec 2008 | 5 | 5.1% | +33.2% | +1000.0% |
| Jan 2009 | Feb 2009 | 3 | 2.0% | +50.7% | +999.4% |
| Feb 2009 | Mar 2009 | 5 | 16.2% | +48.3% | +1022.6% |
| Jan 2016 | Jan 2016 | 3 | 4.1% | +12.7% | +398.3% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 1 | 0.5% | +16.5% | +385.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 2.4% | +47.6% | +254.6% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 2 | 4.4% | +76.3% | +154.6% |
| Jun 2026 | Aug 2026 | 5 | 20.2% | N/A | +5.6% |
| Average | 13 | — | +41.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ORCL below its 200-week moving average?
No. Oracle Corporation (ORCL) is currently 0.2% above its 200-week moving average of $147.27. It would need to fall to $147.27 to cross below the line.
What is ORCL's 200-week moving average price?
Oracle Corporation's 200-week moving average is $147.27 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ORCL drops below its 200-week moving average?
ORCL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +41.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 13 weeks on average.
Is ORCL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ORCL as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 37. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 41.2%. Price-to-book is 7.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ORCL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in ORCL would have grown to $23167, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 17.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. ORCL has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ORCL pay a dividend?
Yes. Oracle Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 135.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18