ONB
Old National Bancorp Financial Services - Banking Investor Relations →
Old National Bancorp (ONB) closed at $25.27 as of 2026-09-18, trading 35.7% above its 200-week moving average of $18.63. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 38.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 52, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.93 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2156 weeks of data, ONB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 27 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ONB at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +5.4%.
With a market cap of $9.7 billion, ONB is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 10.6%. The stock trades at 1.2x book value.
Share count has increased 33.0% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ONB would have grown to $552, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. ONB has returned 5.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ONB vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ONB Crosses Below the Line?
Across 25 historical episodes, buying ONB when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +9.2% after 12 months (median +11.0%), compared to +11.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 72% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +16.4% vs +23.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ONB crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ONB would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ONB's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-21.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $24.88 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $25.97 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $27.16 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $28.46 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $29.90 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | $0.63 | $0.65 | +3.8% |
| 2026-04-22 | $0.60 | $0.61 | +0.9% |
| 2026-01-21 | $0.59 | $0.62 | +4.4% |
| 2025-10-22 | $0.56 | $0.59 | +5.0% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ONB's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ONB has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +5.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1985 | Jan 1986 | 5 | 2.0% | -36.6% | +333.7% |
| Jan 1986 | Jan 1986 | 1 | 1.9% | -37.6% | +333.7% |
| Jul 1986 | Jul 1991 | 258 | 43.7% | -18.3% | +488.0% |
| Feb 2000 | Mar 2000 | 3 | 4.5% | -2.2% | +213.1% |
| Jul 2000 | Jul 2000 | 1 | 0.3% | +6.1% | +196.0% |
| Jan 2001 | May 2001 | 16 | 19.3% | +1.3% | +185.1% |
| Jun 2001 | Jun 2001 | 2 | 0.1% | +5.8% | +177.2% |
| Jul 2001 | Jul 2001 | 3 | 1.8% | +1.5% | +177.7% |
| Aug 2001 | Apr 2002 | 34 | 8.0% | +7.3% | +176.2% |
| Jul 2002 | Jul 2002 | 2 | 0.5% | +4.8% | +173.5% |
| Sep 2002 | Oct 2002 | 1 | 0.2% | +1.2% | +173.3% |
| Nov 2002 | Dec 2002 | 5 | 4.0% | +3.2% | +185.0% |
| Feb 2003 | May 2003 | 14 | 4.1% | +3.4% | +177.6% |
| Oct 2003 | Dec 2003 | 8 | 1.9% | +19.4% | +177.5% |
| Mar 2005 | May 2005 | 10 | 5.1% | +10.6% | +162.4% |
| May 2006 | Aug 2008 | 118 | 26.9% | -3.3% | +158.8% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 1 | 6.3% | -32.8% | +178.2% |
| Nov 2008 | Jan 2012 | 164 | 43.0% | -29.8% | +173.4% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 1 | 2.4% | +24.5% | +258.0% |
| Jan 2016 | Apr 2016 | 15 | 13.8% | +49.6% | +184.3% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 3 | 4.2% | +42.2% | +181.7% |
| Jun 2016 | Jul 2016 | 4 | 4.4% | +43.0% | +177.8% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 1.8% | +30.3% | +118.3% |
| Feb 2020 | Nov 2020 | 37 | 25.8% | +19.2% | +96.5% |
| Apr 2022 | May 2022 | 7 | 5.1% | -6.7% | +88.1% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 6 | 7.6% | -5.8% | +90.5% |
| Mar 2023 | Jul 2023 | 18 | 22.3% | +18.4% | +94.7% |
| Aug 2023 | Nov 2023 | 14 | 11.1% | +33.1% | +81.7% |
| Average | 27 | — | +5.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ONB below its 200-week moving average?
No. Old National Bancorp (ONB) is currently 35.7% above its 200-week moving average of $18.63. It would need to fall to $18.63 to cross below the line.
What is ONB's 200-week moving average price?
Old National Bancorp's 200-week moving average is $18.63 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ONB drops below its 200-week moving average?
ONB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +5.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 27 weeks on average.
Is ONB a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ONB as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 52. Return on equity is 10.6%. Price-to-book is 1.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ONB compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in ONB would have grown to $552, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 5.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. ONB has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ONB pay a dividend?
Yes. Old National Bancorp currently pays a dividend yield of 230.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18