OMER
Omeros Corporation Healthcare - Biotechnology Investor Relations →
Omeros Corporation (OMER) closed at $10.28 as of 2026-06-19, trading 79.0% above its 200-week moving average of $5.74. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 52.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 47, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.95 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 823 weeks of data, OMER has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 26 weeks. Historically, investors who bought OMER at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +16.5%.
With a market cap of $744 million, OMER is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 24.3%, which is notably high. The stock trades at -11.7x book value.
Share count has increased 14.1% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 15.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in OMER would have grown to $142, compared to $869 for the S&P 500. OMER has returned 2.2% annualized vs 14.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: OMER vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After OMER Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying OMER when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +15.6% after 12 months (median -1.0%), compared to +15.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 47% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +18.2% vs +34.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment OMER crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. OMER currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from OMER's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
OMER has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +16.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2011 | Jan 2012 | 53 | 50.1% | -6.7% | +64.7% |
| Nov 2012 | Nov 2012 | 1 | 6.1% | +23.4% | +61.6% |
| Dec 2012 | Sep 2013 | 40 | 41.2% | +26.7% | +57.9% |
| Jan 2016 | Mar 2016 | 9 | 18.9% | -13.5% | -10.6% |
| May 2016 | Nov 2016 | 28 | 42.3% | +24.1% | -17.0% |
| Nov 2016 | Mar 2017 | 17 | 30.3% | +90.1% | -5.8% |
| Oct 2017 | Nov 2017 | 1 | 1.8% | +9.4% | -31.2% |
| Jan 2018 | Apr 2018 | 13 | 36.1% | -10.3% | -32.3% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 3 | 14.0% | +14.7% | -26.4% |
| Nov 2018 | Mar 2019 | 17 | 31.1% | +4.3% | -21.0% |
| Jul 2019 | Jul 2019 | 3 | 3.7% | +3.1% | -30.0% |
| Oct 2019 | Oct 2019 | 1 | 0.7% | -27.7% | -32.9% |
| Nov 2019 | Apr 2020 | 24 | 28.7% | -23.1% | -24.3% |
| May 2020 | Jan 2021 | 35 | 37.3% | +29.2% | -27.0% |
| May 2021 | Sep 2021 | 17 | 15.1% | -81.1% | -31.0% |
| Sep 2021 | Nov 2024 | 163 | 88.4% | -63.1% | +20.4% |
| May 2025 | Oct 2025 | 22 | 41.9% | +280.4% | +219.3% |
| Average | 26 | — | +16.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OMER below its 200-week moving average?
No. Omeros Corporation (OMER) is currently 79.0% above its 200-week moving average of $5.74. It would need to fall to $5.74 to cross below the line.
What is OMER's 200-week moving average price?
Omeros Corporation's 200-week moving average is $5.74 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when OMER drops below its 200-week moving average?
OMER has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +16.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 26 weeks on average.
Is OMER a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about OMER as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 47. Free cash flow yield is 24.3%. Price-to-book is -11.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does OMER compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 15.8 years, $100 invested in OMER would have grown to $142, compared to $869 for the S&P 500. That's 2.2% annualized vs 14.6% for the index. OMER has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19