OMC
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Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC) closed at $78.70 as of 2026-07-31, trading 0.7% above its 200-week moving average of $78.18. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 2.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 55, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.96 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2371 weeks of data, OMC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 42 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought OMC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.7%.
With a market cap of $21.6 billion, OMC is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 19.7%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 6.1%. The stock trades at 2.0x book value.
Share count has increased 54.5% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in OMC would have grown to $3118, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 10.8% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming OMC as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 48.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: OMC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After OMC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 25 historical episodes, buying OMC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.5% after 12 months (median +11.0%), compared to +6.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 77% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +21.1% vs +24.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment OMC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices OMC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where OMC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $65.89 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $69.14 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $72.73 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $76.72 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $81.16 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from OMC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
OMC has crossed below its 200-week MA 42 times with an average 1-year return of +17.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1981 | Oct 1981 | 30 | 13.5% | -7.8% | +10761.1% |
| Jan 1982 | Jun 1982 | 21 | 9.1% | +41.3% | +10933.5% |
| Jul 1982 | Aug 1982 | 5 | 5.9% | +74.6% | +10933.5% |
| Oct 1982 | Oct 1982 | 2 | 9.2% | +48.3% | +11884.6% |
| Jan 1984 | May 1984 | 16 | 13.0% | +22.5% | +10676.9% |
| Jun 1984 | Jun 1984 | 2 | 2.1% | +40.3% | +9554.3% |
| Jul 1984 | Jan 1985 | 26 | 21.2% | +53.7% | +10122.2% |
| Dec 1985 | Dec 1985 | 2 | 7.0% | +18.5% | +9422.0% |
| Jan 1986 | Feb 1986 | 7 | 5.5% | +22.6% | +8811.7% |
| Sep 1986 | Dec 1986 | 12 | 17.0% | +39.6% | +8811.7% |
| Dec 1986 | Dec 1986 | 2 | 1.8% | -8.2% | +8280.3% |
| Oct 1987 | Feb 1988 | 19 | 22.1% | +19.4% | +8853.3% |
| Mar 1988 | Apr 1988 | 3 | 1.1% | +5.7% | +8123.7% |
| May 1988 | Oct 1988 | 20 | 8.2% | +20.8% | +8337.2% |
| Nov 1988 | Jan 1989 | 9 | 3.4% | +26.9% | +7818.1% |
| Mar 1989 | Mar 1989 | 1 | 0.1% | +22.1% | +7726.6% |
| Oct 1990 | Nov 1990 | 5 | 14.6% | +52.4% | +7236.8% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 5 | 15.6% | -1.7% | +382.0% |
| Jun 2002 | Aug 2003 | 64 | 42.8% | +1.0% | +295.2% |
| Sep 2003 | Oct 2003 | 5 | 5.7% | +0.8% | +290.6% |
| Jun 2004 | Oct 2004 | 17 | 10.7% | +10.9% | +282.1% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 1 | 2.1% | -36.7% | +216.1% |
| Mar 2008 | Mar 2008 | 2 | 1.4% | -44.2% | +212.2% |
| Jun 2008 | Apr 2010 | 93 | 47.1% | -25.7% | +213.5% |
| May 2010 | Sep 2010 | 20 | 15.2% | +24.1% | +231.0% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 3.0% | +45.0% | +241.6% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 4 | 3.8% | +43.7% | +234.4% |
| Aug 2017 | Sep 2017 | 4 | 2.0% | -2.7% | +48.4% |
| Oct 2017 | Nov 2017 | 5 | 9.6% | +7.1% | +57.1% |
| Dec 2017 | Jan 2018 | 2 | 0.9% | +2.6% | +46.7% |
| Mar 2018 | Apr 2018 | 4 | 3.8% | +7.7% | +51.0% |
| May 2018 | Jun 2018 | 2 | 1.9% | +13.3% | +47.2% |
| Jul 2018 | Oct 2018 | 15 | 7.9% | +21.0% | +54.2% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 3.2% | +19.0% | +47.2% |
| Feb 2020 | Feb 2021 | 50 | 31.8% | +3.6% | +44.3% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 5 | 4.5% | +56.1% | +43.4% |
| Aug 2022 | Sep 2022 | 1 | 0.3% | +25.3% | +36.6% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 3 | 4.1% | +20.6% | +41.6% |
| Mar 2025 | Aug 2025 | 20 | 10.4% | +7.1% | +13.9% |
| Sep 2025 | Dec 2025 | 13 | 8.5% | N/A | +5.1% |
| Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 | 3 | 11.3% | N/A | +4.3% |
| Mar 2026 | Jun 2026 | 15 | 9.3% | N/A | +6.0% |
| Average | 13 | — | +17.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OMC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC) is currently 0.7% above its 200-week moving average of $78.18. It would need to fall to $78.18 to cross below the line.
What is OMC's 200-week moving average price?
Omnicom Group Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $78.18 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when OMC drops below its 200-week moving average?
OMC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 42 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +17.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 13 weeks on average.
Is OMC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about OMC as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 55. Free cash flow yield is 19.7%. Return on equity is 6.1%. Price-to-book is 2.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does OMC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in OMC would have grown to $3118, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 10.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. OMC has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does OMC pay a dividend?
Yes. Omnicom Group Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 402.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31