OMC
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Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC) closed at $76.57 as of 2026-09-18, trading 2.0% below its 200-week moving average of $78.11. This places OMC in the below line zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 0.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 51, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.3x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 2378 weeks of data, OMC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 43 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought OMC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.4%.
With a market cap of $21.0 billion, OMC is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 20.3%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 6.1%. The stock trades at 2.2x book value.
Share count has increased 54.5% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in OMC would have grown to $3065, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. OMC has returned 10.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 48.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: OMC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After OMC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 25 historical episodes, buying OMC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.2% after 12 months (median +11.0%), compared to +7.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 78% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +21.1% vs +24.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment OMC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices OMC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where OMC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-20.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $72.86 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $76.23 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $79.92 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $84.00 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $88.51 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | $2.66 | $2.65 | -0.4% |
| 2026-04-28 | $1.84 | $1.90 | +3.1% |
| 2026-02-18 | $2.94 | $2.59 | -11.8% |
| 2025-10-21 | $2.17 | $2.24 | +3.1% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from OMC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
OMC has crossed below its 200-week MA 43 times with an average 1-year return of +17.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1981 | Oct 1981 | 30 | 13.5% | -7.8% | +10575.8% |
| Jan 1982 | Jun 1982 | 21 | 9.1% | +41.3% | +10745.2% |
| Jul 1982 | Aug 1982 | 5 | 5.9% | +74.6% | +10745.2% |
| Oct 1982 | Oct 1982 | 2 | 9.2% | +48.3% | +11680.2% |
| Jan 1984 | May 1984 | 16 | 13.0% | +22.5% | +10493.0% |
| Jun 1984 | Jun 1984 | 2 | 2.1% | +40.3% | +9389.6% |
| Jul 1984 | Jan 1985 | 26 | 21.2% | +53.7% | +9947.8% |
| Dec 1985 | Dec 1985 | 2 | 7.0% | +18.5% | +9259.6% |
| Jan 1986 | Feb 1986 | 7 | 5.5% | +22.6% | +8659.6% |
| Sep 1986 | Dec 1986 | 12 | 17.0% | +39.6% | +8659.6% |
| Dec 1986 | Dec 1986 | 2 | 1.8% | -8.2% | +8137.4% |
| Oct 1987 | Feb 1988 | 19 | 22.1% | +19.4% | +8700.6% |
| Mar 1988 | Apr 1988 | 3 | 1.1% | +5.7% | +7983.3% |
| May 1988 | Oct 1988 | 20 | 8.2% | +20.8% | +8193.3% |
| Nov 1988 | Jan 1989 | 9 | 3.4% | +26.9% | +7683.0% |
| Mar 1989 | Mar 1989 | 1 | 0.1% | +22.1% | +7593.0% |
| Oct 1990 | Nov 1990 | 5 | 14.6% | +52.4% | +7111.6% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 5 | 15.6% | -1.7% | +373.8% |
| Jun 2002 | Aug 2003 | 64 | 42.8% | +1.0% | +288.4% |
| Sep 2003 | Oct 2003 | 5 | 5.7% | +0.8% | +284.0% |
| Jun 2004 | Oct 2004 | 17 | 10.7% | +10.9% | +275.6% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 1 | 2.1% | -36.7% | +210.7% |
| Mar 2008 | Mar 2008 | 2 | 1.4% | -44.2% | +206.8% |
| Jun 2008 | Apr 2010 | 93 | 47.1% | -25.7% | +208.2% |
| May 2010 | Sep 2010 | 20 | 15.2% | +24.1% | +225.3% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 3.0% | +45.0% | +235.8% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 4 | 3.8% | +43.7% | +228.7% |
| Aug 2017 | Sep 2017 | 4 | 2.0% | -2.7% | +45.8% |
| Oct 2017 | Nov 2017 | 5 | 9.6% | +7.1% | +54.4% |
| Dec 2017 | Jan 2018 | 2 | 0.9% | +2.6% | +44.2% |
| Mar 2018 | Apr 2018 | 4 | 3.8% | +7.7% | +48.4% |
| May 2018 | Jun 2018 | 2 | 1.9% | +13.3% | +44.7% |
| Jul 2018 | Oct 2018 | 15 | 7.9% | +21.0% | +51.5% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 3.2% | +19.0% | +44.7% |
| Feb 2020 | Feb 2021 | 50 | 31.8% | +3.6% | +41.8% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 5 | 4.5% | +56.1% | +40.9% |
| Aug 2022 | Sep 2022 | 1 | 0.3% | +25.3% | +34.2% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 3 | 4.1% | +20.6% | +39.2% |
| Mar 2025 | Aug 2025 | 20 | 10.4% | +7.1% | +11.9% |
| Sep 2025 | Dec 2025 | 13 | 8.5% | +5.5% | +3.3% |
| Jan 2026 | Feb 2026 | 3 | 11.3% | N/A | +2.5% |
| Mar 2026 | Jun 2026 | 15 | 9.3% | N/A | +4.2% |
| Sep 2026 | Ongoing | 1+ | 2.0% | Ongoing | N/A |
| Average | 12 | — | +17.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OMC below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC) is trading 2.0% below its 200-week moving average of $78.11. The current price is $76.57.
What is OMC's 200-week moving average price?
Omnicom Group Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $78.11 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when OMC drops below its 200-week moving average?
OMC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 43 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +17.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 12 weeks on average.
Is OMC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about OMC as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 51. Free cash flow yield is 20.3%. Return on equity is 6.1%. Price-to-book is 2.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does OMC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in OMC would have grown to $3065, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 10.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. OMC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does OMC pay a dividend?
Yes. Omnicom Group Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 418.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18