OMC
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Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC) closed at $69.87 as of 2026-02-02, trading 10.2% below its 200-week moving average of $77.77. This places OMC in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -0.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 43, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 2346 weeks of data, OMC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 40 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought OMC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.9%.
With a market cap of $22.2 billion, OMC is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.8%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 27.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 2.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 6.1% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in OMC would have grown to $2712, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. OMC has returned 10.5% annualized vs 10.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 7.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Growth of $100: OMC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After OMC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 23 historical episodes, buying OMC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.9% after 12 months (median +11.0%), compared to +6.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 76% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +20.6% vs +24.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment OMC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
OMC has crossed below its 200-week MA 40 times with an average 1-year return of +17.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1981 | Oct 1981 | 30 | 13.5% | -7.8% | +9346.2% |
| Jan 1982 | Jun 1982 | 21 | 9.1% | +41.3% | +9496.2% |
| Jul 1982 | Aug 1982 | 5 | 5.9% | +74.6% | +9496.2% |
| Oct 1982 | Oct 1982 | 2 | 9.2% | +48.3% | +10323.4% |
| Jan 1984 | May 1984 | 16 | 13.0% | +22.5% | +9273.0% |
| Jun 1984 | Jun 1984 | 2 | 2.1% | +40.3% | +8296.7% |
| Jul 1984 | Jan 1985 | 26 | 21.2% | +53.7% | +8790.6% |
| Dec 1985 | Dec 1985 | 2 | 7.0% | +18.5% | +8181.6% |
| Jan 1986 | Feb 1986 | 7 | 5.5% | +22.6% | +7650.8% |
| Sep 1986 | Dec 1986 | 12 | 17.0% | +38.3% | +7650.8% |
| Dec 1986 | Dec 1986 | 2 | 1.8% | -8.2% | +7188.7% |
| Oct 1987 | Feb 1988 | 19 | 22.1% | +19.4% | +7687.0% |
| Mar 1988 | Apr 1988 | 3 | 1.0% | +5.7% | +7052.4% |
| May 1988 | Oct 1988 | 20 | 8.2% | +20.8% | +7238.2% |
| Nov 1988 | Jan 1989 | 9 | 3.4% | +26.9% | +6786.6% |
| Oct 1990 | Nov 1990 | 5 | 14.5% | +52.4% | +6281.1% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 5 | 15.8% | -1.7% | +320.5% |
| Jun 2002 | Aug 2003 | 64 | 42.8% | +0.9% | +244.5% |
| Sep 2003 | Oct 2003 | 5 | 5.9% | +0.7% | +240.6% |
| Jun 2004 | Oct 2004 | 17 | 10.7% | +10.9% | +232.4% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 1 | 2.1% | -36.7% | +175.0% |
| Mar 2008 | Mar 2008 | 2 | 1.4% | -44.2% | +171.5% |
| Jun 2008 | Apr 2010 | 93 | 47.4% | -25.7% | +172.7% |
| May 2010 | Sep 2010 | 20 | 15.2% | +24.1% | +187.8% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 2.9% | +45.0% | +197.1% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 4 | 4.3% | +43.7% | +190.8% |
| Aug 2017 | Sep 2017 | 4 | 2.0% | -2.7% | +29.0% |
| Oct 2017 | Nov 2017 | 5 | 9.6% | +7.1% | +36.6% |
| Jan 2018 | Jan 2018 | 1 | 0.9% | +5.0% | +28.7% |
| Mar 2018 | Apr 2018 | 4 | 3.7% | +7.7% | +31.3% |
| May 2018 | Jun 2018 | 2 | 1.8% | +13.3% | +28.1% |
| Jul 2018 | Oct 2018 | 15 | 7.9% | +21.0% | +34.1% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 3.9% | +19.0% | +29.0% |
| Feb 2020 | Feb 2021 | 50 | 31.8% | +3.6% | +25.5% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 5 | 4.4% | +56.1% | +24.7% |
| Aug 2022 | Sep 2022 | 1 | 0.2% | +25.3% | +18.8% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 3 | 4.8% | +20.7% | +24.4% |
| Mar 2025 | Aug 2025 | 20 | 11.3% | N/A | -0.9% |
| Sep 2025 | Dec 2025 | 13 | 8.4% | N/A | -8.6% |
| Jan 2026 | Ongoing | 2+ | 10.2% | Ongoing | -9.3% |
| Average | 13 | — | +17.9% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02