OLN
Olin Corporation Materials - Chemicals Investor Relations →
Olin Corporation (OLN) closed at $22.01 as of 2026-06-19, trading 42.3% below its 200-week moving average of $38.17. This places OLN in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -34.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 44, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.0x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 2734 weeks of data, OLN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 48 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought OLN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +19.0%.
With a market cap of $2.5 billion, OLN is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 19.5%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at -9.8%. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 14.1% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in OLN would have grown to $620, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. OLN has returned 5.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -47.2% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: OLN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After OLN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 29 historical episodes, buying OLN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +6.3% after 12 months (median +15.0%), compared to +8.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +36.2% vs +16.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment OLN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices OLN would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where OLN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-30.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $23.79 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $26.52 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $29.96 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $34.42 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $40.44 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from OLN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
OLN has crossed below its 200-week MA 48 times with an average 1-year return of +19.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1974 | Mar 1974 | 4 | 0.9% | +19.1% | +4411.2% |
| Jul 1974 | Jul 1974 | 4 | 7.4% | +89.6% | +4411.2% |
| Dec 1974 | Jan 1975 | 5 | 3.7% | +99.1% | +4372.3% |
| Feb 1978 | Apr 1978 | 8 | 10.9% | +28.6% | +2216.0% |
| May 1978 | Aug 1978 | 12 | 13.6% | +21.4% | +1958.7% |
| Aug 1978 | Sep 1978 | 4 | 11.3% | +45.7% | +1910.8% |
| Nov 1978 | Nov 1978 | 1 | 1.7% | -0.7% | +1821.4% |
| Feb 1979 | Feb 1979 | 1 | 0.4% | +22.5% | +1726.7% |
| Oct 1979 | Feb 1980 | 18 | 12.9% | +8.2% | +1676.7% |
| Mar 1980 | Jun 1980 | 16 | 20.5% | +23.4% | +1688.9% |
| Jul 1980 | Jul 1980 | 1 | 0.7% | +20.9% | +1652.7% |
| Sep 1980 | Sep 1980 | 1 | 0.1% | +21.5% | +1640.9% |
| Oct 1980 | Nov 1980 | 1 | 1.5% | +25.2% | +1664.6% |
| Dec 1980 | Dec 1980 | 2 | 3.4% | +27.9% | +1664.6% |
| Feb 1982 | Apr 1982 | 9 | 6.1% | +33.8% | +1521.2% |
| May 1982 | Sep 1982 | 18 | 21.7% | +54.0% | +1511.1% |
| Sep 1982 | Oct 1982 | 1 | 0.6% | +56.8% | +1501.2% |
| Oct 1987 | Dec 1987 | 6 | 5.8% | +35.8% | +767.2% |
| Jul 1990 | Feb 1991 | 28 | 38.8% | +17.4% | +517.2% |
| Mar 1991 | May 1991 | 7 | 10.2% | +21.9% | +537.5% |
| Oct 1991 | Jan 1992 | 14 | 17.9% | -5.6% | +503.6% |
| Jun 1992 | Dec 1992 | 28 | 15.6% | +5.4% | +480.1% |
| Jan 1993 | Feb 1993 | 6 | 8.0% | +22.5% | +482.6% |
| Apr 1993 | May 1993 | 1 | 0.8% | +24.5% | +476.7% |
| Aug 1993 | Sep 1993 | 6 | 1.8% | +44.0% | +487.7% |
| Aug 1998 | Dec 2000 | 122 | 55.0% | -38.1% | +190.6% |
| Jan 2001 | Feb 2001 | 3 | 3.7% | -12.8% | +205.9% |
| Apr 2001 | Apr 2001 | 1 | 2.1% | +0.2% | +205.3% |
| Jun 2001 | Feb 2002 | 34 | 24.6% | +28.9% | +226.3% |
| Sep 2002 | Oct 2002 | 2 | 1.2% | +15.2% | +236.2% |
| Oct 2002 | Dec 2002 | 9 | 7.0% | +22.7% | +245.9% |
| Feb 2003 | Feb 2003 | 1 | 0.1% | +19.7% | +226.2% |
| May 2004 | May 2004 | 3 | 2.0% | +20.7% | +198.9% |
| Aug 2004 | Aug 2004 | 1 | 0.4% | +17.1% | +193.5% |
| Jun 2006 | Jun 2006 | 3 | 1.3% | +22.8% | +157.5% |
| Jul 2006 | Oct 2006 | 13 | 14.9% | +39.1% | +161.8% |
| Oct 2006 | Apr 2007 | 26 | 5.9% | +40.7% | +157.4% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 2 | 5.8% | +6.7% | +147.0% |
| Sep 2008 | Sep 2009 | 50 | 47.3% | +2.9% | +135.2% |
| Sep 2009 | Nov 2009 | 7 | 9.5% | +28.8% | +128.7% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 4 | 4.1% | +23.7% | +124.3% |
| Jul 2015 | May 2016 | 44 | 42.2% | -5.2% | +34.3% |
| Jul 2016 | Nov 2016 | 16 | 15.7% | +56.3% | +41.6% |
| Oct 2018 | Feb 2019 | 19 | 25.5% | -25.1% | +10.8% |
| Mar 2019 | Apr 2019 | 4 | 8.7% | -43.6% | +12.6% |
| Apr 2019 | Nov 2020 | 84 | 56.8% | -41.2% | +10.9% |
| Jul 2024 | Jul 2024 | 1 | 2.6% | -50.8% | -48.9% |
| Jul 2024 | Ongoing | 100+ | 60.1% | Ongoing | -47.6% |
| Average | 16 | — | +19.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OLN below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Olin Corporation (OLN) is trading 42.3% below its 200-week moving average of $38.17. The current price is $22.01.
What is OLN's 200-week moving average price?
Olin Corporation's 200-week moving average is $38.17 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when OLN drops below its 200-week moving average?
OLN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 48 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +19.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is OLN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about OLN as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 44. Free cash flow yield is 19.5%. Return on equity is -9.8%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does OLN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in OLN would have grown to $620, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 5.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. OLN has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does OLN pay a dividend?
Yes. Olin Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 336.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19