OLN
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Olin Corporation (OLN) closed at $16.84 as of 2026-09-18, trading 53.2% below its 200-week moving average of $35.96. This places OLN in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -52.4% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 25, OLN is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.88 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2747 weeks of data, OLN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 46 times. On average, these episodes lasted 17 weeks. Historically, investors who bought OLN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +20.2%.
With a market cap of $1919 million, OLN is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 16.2%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at -10.6%. The stock trades at 1.1x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 14.1% over the past three years. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in OLN would have grown to $480, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. OLN has returned 4.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -47.2% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: OLN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After OLN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 27 historical episodes, buying OLN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +7.8% after 12 months (median +19.0%), compared to +7.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 68% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +23.9% vs +15.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment OLN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices OLN would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where OLN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $12.03 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $14.00 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $16.74 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $20.82 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $27.51 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | $0.10 | $0.07 | -29.1% |
| 2026-05-07 | $-0.64 | $-0.33 | +48.2% |
| 2026-01-29 | $-0.62 | $-0.64 | -1.9% |
| 2025-10-27 | $0.09 | $0.39 | +344.6% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from OLN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
OLN has crossed below its 200-week MA 46 times with an average 1-year return of +20.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1974 | Mar 1974 | 4 | 0.9% | +19.1% | +3391.4% |
| Jul 1974 | Jul 1974 | 4 | 7.4% | +89.6% | +3391.4% |
| Dec 1974 | Jan 1975 | 5 | 3.7% | +99.1% | +3361.3% |
| Feb 1978 | Apr 1978 | 8 | 10.9% | +28.6% | +1692.5% |
| May 1978 | Aug 1978 | 12 | 13.6% | +21.4% | +1493.3% |
| Aug 1978 | Sep 1978 | 4 | 11.3% | +45.7% | +1456.3% |
| Nov 1978 | Nov 1978 | 1 | 1.7% | -0.7% | +1387.1% |
| Feb 1979 | Feb 1979 | 1 | 0.4% | +22.5% | +1313.8% |
| Oct 1979 | Feb 1980 | 18 | 12.9% | +8.2% | +1275.0% |
| Mar 1980 | Jun 1980 | 16 | 20.5% | +23.4% | +1284.5% |
| Jul 1980 | Jul 1980 | 1 | 0.7% | +20.9% | +1256.5% |
| Sep 1980 | Sep 1980 | 1 | 0.1% | +21.5% | +1247.4% |
| Oct 1980 | Nov 1980 | 1 | 1.5% | +25.2% | +1265.7% |
| Dec 1980 | Dec 1980 | 2 | 3.4% | +27.9% | +1265.7% |
| Feb 1982 | Apr 1982 | 9 | 6.1% | +33.7% | +1154.7% |
| May 1982 | Sep 1982 | 18 | 21.7% | +54.0% | +1146.9% |
| Sep 1982 | Oct 1982 | 1 | 0.6% | +56.8% | +1139.2% |
| Oct 1987 | Dec 1987 | 6 | 5.9% | +35.8% | +571.2% |
| Jul 1990 | Feb 1991 | 28 | 37.8% | +17.4% | +377.7% |
| Mar 1991 | May 1991 | 7 | 10.2% | +21.9% | +393.4% |
| Oct 1991 | Jan 1992 | 14 | 18.0% | -5.6% | +367.1% |
| Jun 1992 | Dec 1992 | 28 | 14.9% | +5.4% | +349.0% |
| Jan 1993 | Feb 1993 | 6 | 8.1% | +22.5% | +350.9% |
| Apr 1993 | May 1993 | 1 | 0.9% | +24.5% | +346.4% |
| Aug 1993 | Sep 1993 | 6 | 1.9% | +44.0% | +354.9% |
| Aug 1998 | Dec 2000 | 122 | 55.0% | -37.6% | +122.9% |
| Jan 2001 | Feb 2001 | 3 | 3.8% | -12.8% | +136.8% |
| Apr 2001 | Apr 2001 | 1 | 2.2% | +0.2% | +136.3% |
| Jun 2001 | Feb 2002 | 34 | 24.6% | +28.9% | +152.5% |
| Sep 2002 | Oct 2002 | 2 | 1.3% | +15.2% | +160.2% |
| Oct 2002 | Dec 2002 | 9 | 7.1% | +22.7% | +167.7% |
| May 2004 | May 2004 | 2 | 2.1% | +15.7% | +133.5% |
| Aug 2004 | Aug 2004 | 1 | 0.4% | +18.5% | +127.1% |
| Jun 2006 | Jun 2006 | 3 | 1.3% | +22.8% | +99.3% |
| Jul 2006 | Oct 2006 | 13 | 14.9% | +39.1% | +102.6% |
| Oct 2006 | Apr 2007 | 26 | 5.3% | +40.7% | +99.2% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 2 | 5.8% | +6.7% | +91.2% |
| Sep 2008 | Sep 2009 | 50 | 47.4% | +2.9% | +82.0% |
| Sep 2009 | Nov 2009 | 7 | 9.6% | +28.8% | +77.0% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 4 | 4.2% | +23.7% | +73.6% |
| Jul 2015 | May 2016 | 44 | 41.3% | -5.2% | +4.0% |
| Jul 2016 | Nov 2016 | 16 | 15.7% | +56.3% | +9.6% |
| Oct 2018 | Feb 2019 | 19 | 25.5% | -25.1% | -14.3% |
| Mar 2019 | Nov 2020 | 90 | 56.8% | -43.6% | -12.9% |
| Jul 2024 | Jul 2024 | 1 | 2.7% | -50.8% | -60.4% |
| Jul 2024 | Ongoing | 113+ | 60.1% | Ongoing | -59.4% |
| Average | 17 | — | +20.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OLN below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Olin Corporation (OLN) is trading 53.2% below its 200-week moving average of $35.96. The current price is $16.84.
What is OLN's 200-week moving average price?
Olin Corporation's 200-week moving average is $35.96 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when OLN drops below its 200-week moving average?
OLN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 46 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +20.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 17 weeks on average.
Is OLN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about OLN as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 25 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 16.2%. Return on equity is -10.6%. Price-to-book is 1.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does OLN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in OLN would have grown to $480, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 4.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. OLN has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does OLN pay a dividend?
Yes. Olin Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 475.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18