OLLI
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Discount Retail Investor Relations →
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. (OLLI) closed at $98.96 as of 2026-03-20, trading 14.0% above its 200-week moving average of $86.82. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 26.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 35, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.04 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 509 weeks of data, OLLI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times. On average, these episodes lasted 37 weeks. Historically, investors who bought OLLI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +44.1%.
With a market cap of $6.1 billion, OLLI is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.0%. Return on equity stands at 13.4%. The stock trades at 3.2x book value.
Over the past 9.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in OLLI would have grown to $399, compared to $364 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.1% vs 14.1% for the index — confirming OLLI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 120% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: OLLI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After OLLI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 3 historical episodes, buying OLLI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +32.3% after 12 months (median +41.0%), compared to +10.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +12.7% vs +31.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment OLLI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
OLLI has crossed below its 200-week MA 3 times with an average 1-year return of +44.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2020 | Apr 2020 | 13 | 32.2% | +83.9% | +85.5% |
| Aug 2021 | Jul 2023 | 98 | 49.1% | -15.7% | +36.4% |
| Dec 2023 | Dec 2023 | 1 | 1.2% | +64.0% | +43.9% |
| Average | 37 | — | +44.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OLLI below its 200-week moving average?
No. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. (OLLI) is currently 14.0% above its 200-week moving average of $86.82. It would need to fall to $86.82 to cross below the line.
What is OLLI's 200-week moving average price?
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $86.82 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when OLLI drops below its 200-week moving average?
OLLI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +44.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 37 weeks on average.
Is OLLI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about OLLI as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 35. Free cash flow yield is 2.0%. Return on equity is 13.4%. Price-to-book is 3.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does OLLI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 9.8 years, $100 invested in OLLI would have grown to $399, compared to $364 for the S&P 500. That's 15.1% annualized vs 14.1% for the index. OLLI has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20