OGS

ONE Gas, Inc. Utilities - Utilities - Regulated Gas Investor Relations →

NO
11.0% ABOVE
↓ Approaching Was 12.5% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $69.18
14-Week RSI 30
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 1.9x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 0.79

ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS) closed at $76.76 as of 2026-06-19, trading 11.0% above its 200-week moving average of $69.18. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 12.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 30, indicating neutral momentum.

Trading volume is running at 1.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.79 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 600 weeks of data, OGS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times. On average, these episodes lasted 9 weeks. Historically, investors who bought OGS at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +3.0%.

With a market cap of $4.8 billion, OGS is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 8.1%. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.

Share count has increased 13.3% over three years, indicating dilution.

Over the past 11.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in OGS would have grown to $257, compared to $442 for the S&P 500. OGS has returned 8.5% annualized vs 13.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.

Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: OGS vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After OGS Crosses Below the Line?

Across 13 historical episodes, buying OGS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +1.3% after 12 months (median +0.0%), compared to +23.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 46% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +10.8% vs +38.8% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment OGS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Bean Score Experimental

The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. OGS currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.

Current Bean Score -2.05σ
Current FCF Yield -4.47%
Baseline Yield -3.97%
Historical σ 0.26pp

Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end

Data depth: 2 quarterly baselines, 22 price observations — Limited history (4+ quarters preferred for reliability)

Signal Accuracy Collecting Data

The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"

11 / 13 weeks minimum

Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.

Dislocation Scores Experimental

Each score measures deviation from OGS's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.

⚠ Earnings quality deteriorating — net income is outrunning free cash flow vs this company's own norm. Cheapness signals here deserve extra scrutiny.
Yield Dislocation +0.27σ Dividend yield vs own 10-yr norm
Drawdown Score +0.33σ Distance from line vs own history
Sector-Relative N/A Vs sector median this week
Buyback Acceleration +0.5pp YoY share change vs own 3-yr pace (− = accelerating)
Insider Intensity N/A TTM buys / market cap, percentile of buyers
FCF Yield vs History -11.4pp Vs own recent annual mean
Earnings Quality Deteriorating Accrual gap trend (+17.4pp of revenue)

Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.

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Historical Touches

OGS has crossed below its 200-week MA 13 times with an average 1-year return of +3.0% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Mar 2020Mar 202017.3%+13.2%+39.5%
Jun 2020Jun 202011.2%+5.8%+28.1%
Aug 2020Nov 20201110.0%-0.5%+25.7%
Jan 2021Mar 20211211.3%+12.3%+27.8%
May 2021Dec 20213115.5%+15.7%+21.5%
Feb 2022Feb 202210.7%+11.6%+19.4%
Sep 2022Oct 202247.8%+0.2%+24.8%
Nov 2022Jan 202354.0%-15.0%+19.7%
Mar 2023Mar 202311.3%-11.7%+16.3%
Jul 2023Jul 202310.5%-12.1%+15.6%
Aug 2023Sep 202310.6%-1.8%+16.2%
Sep 2023Sep 20245118.0%+4.5%+15.9%
Jan 2025Jan 202511.1%+17.4%+19.0%
Average9+3.0%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is OGS below its 200-week moving average?

No. ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS) is currently 11.0% above its 200-week moving average of $69.18. It would need to fall to $69.18 to cross below the line.

What is OGS's 200-week moving average price?

ONE Gas, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $69.18 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when OGS drops below its 200-week moving average?

OGS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +3.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 9 weeks on average.

Is OGS a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about OGS as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 30. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 8.1%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does OGS compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 11.6 years, $100 invested in OGS would have grown to $257, compared to $442 for the S&P 500. That's 8.5% annualized vs 13.7% for the index. OGS has underperformed the broader market over this period.

Does OGS pay a dividend?

Yes. ONE Gas, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 353.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-06-19