OGN

Organon & Co. Healthcare - Drug Manufacturers - General Investor Relations →

YES
12.6% BELOW
↑ Moving away Was -12.9% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $15.37
14-Week RSI 93
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 0.4x — Quiet
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 2.92 — Buyers winning

Organon & Co. (OGN) closed at $13.43 as of 2026-06-19, trading 12.6% below its 200-week moving average of $15.37. This places OGN in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -12.9% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 93, OGN is in overbought territory.

Trading activity has gone quiet — just 0.4x of its usual 14-week average. But the buying that is happening outweighs the selling (2.92 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). When volume dries up but buyers are still showing up more than sellers, it can mean the worst of the selling is over and the stock is quietly building a floor.

Over the past 218 weeks of data, OGN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times. On average, these episodes lasted 69 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -29.0%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.

With a market cap of $3.5 billion, OGN is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 15.0%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 34.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 3.9x book value.

Share count has increased 2.3% over three years, indicating dilution.

Over the past 4.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in OGN would have grown to $50, compared to $192 for the S&P 500. OGN has returned -15.2% annualized vs 16.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.

In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 2 open-market purchases totaling $854,835. Notably, these purchases occurred while OGN is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.

Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: OGN vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After OGN Crosses Below the Line?

Across 3 historical episodes, buying OGN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -30.3% after 12 months (median -29.0%), compared to +12.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. After 24 months, the average return was -33.3% vs +38.7% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment OGN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Bean Score Experimental

The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices OGN would reach each dislocation threshold.

Current Bean Score -1.35σ
Current FCF Yield 16.65%
Baseline Yield 35.02%
Historical σ 8.53pp

Dislocation Price Levels

Prices where OGN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).

LevelσPriceSignal
Deep Value+2σ$4.91Unusually cheap — potential buy zone
Value+1σ$6.05Cheap vs. own history
Fair Value+0σ$7.89Historical mean behavior
Expensive-1σ$11.30Expensive vs. own history
Deep Expensive-2σ$19.95Unusually expensive — potential trim zone

Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end

Data depth: 2 quarterly baselines, 22 price observations — Limited history (4+ quarters preferred for reliability)

Signal Accuracy Collecting Data

The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"

11 / 13 weeks minimum

Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.

Dislocation Scores Experimental

Each score measures deviation from OGN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.

Yield Dislocation -2.38σ Dividend yield vs own 10-yr norm
Drawdown Score -0.87σ Distance from line vs own history
Sector-Relative N/A Vs sector median this week
Buyback Acceleration +0.2pp YoY share change vs own 3-yr pace (− = accelerating)
Insider Intensity 64th TTM buys / market cap, percentile of buyers
FCF Yield vs History +1.9pp Vs own recent annual mean
Earnings Quality Improving Accrual gap trend (-9.8pp of revenue)

Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.

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Insider Buying Activity

1 conviction buy in the past 12 months (purchases over $500K with meaningful position increases).

DateInsiderTitleValueSharesPosition +%
2025-11-12COX CARRIE SMITHOfficer and Director$501,75565,400+524.5%

Historical Touches

OGN has crossed below its 200-week MA 3 times with an average 1-year return of +-29.0% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Apr 2022May 202221.1%-22.3%-50.2%
Jul 2022Jan 20232727.0%-35.8%-51.3%
Jan 2023Ongoing178+64.3%Ongoing-47.8%
Average69+-29.0%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is OGN below its 200-week moving average?

Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Organon & Co. (OGN) is trading 12.6% below its 200-week moving average of $15.37. The current price is $13.43.

What is OGN's 200-week moving average price?

Organon & Co.'s 200-week moving average is $15.37 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when OGN drops below its 200-week moving average?

OGN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -29.0%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 69 weeks on average.

Is OGN a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about OGN as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 93 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 15.0%. Return on equity is 34.0%. Price-to-book is 3.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does OGN compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 4.2 years, $100 invested in OGN would have grown to $50, compared to $192 for the S&P 500. That's -15.2% annualized vs 16.6% for the index. OGN has underperformed the broader market over this period.

Does OGN pay a dividend?

Yes. Organon & Co. currently pays a dividend yield of 60.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-06-19