OFG
OFG Bancorp Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
OFG Bancorp (OFG) closed at $46.66 as of 2026-06-19, trading 32.4% above its 200-week moving average of $35.23. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 36.8% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 74, OFG is in overbought territory.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.0x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 1999 weeks of data, OFG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times. On average, these episodes lasted 26 weeks. Historically, investors who bought OFG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +12.4%.
With a market cap of $1972 million, OFG is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 16.0%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 9.1% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in OFG would have grown to $4475, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.0% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming OFG as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: OFG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After OFG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 24 historical episodes, buying OFG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +15.9% after 12 months (median -2.0%), compared to +8.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 48% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +37.0% vs +20.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment OFG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices OFG would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where OFG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $37.26 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $39.48 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $41.98 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $44.82 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $48.07 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from OFG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
OFG has crossed below its 200-week MA 26 times with an average 1-year return of +12.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1988 | Aug 1988 | 8 | 6.8% | -27.0% | +10178.7% |
| Oct 1988 | Apr 1991 | 131 | 44.7% | -26.7% | +9910.0% |
| May 1991 | Jun 1991 | 3 | 0.6% | +35.3% | +12074.4% |
| Jun 1991 | Jul 1991 | 1 | 0.3% | +48.6% | +12074.4% |
| Jul 1991 | Aug 1991 | 4 | 6.8% | +61.9% | +12412.5% |
| Dec 1999 | Dec 1999 | 1 | 2.1% | -38.0% | +697.2% |
| Jan 2000 | Jan 2000 | 3 | 0.5% | -24.3% | +671.7% |
| Feb 2000 | Aug 2001 | 78 | 47.0% | -28.2% | +659.9% |
| Aug 2001 | Jan 2002 | 20 | 14.0% | +35.7% | +649.4% |
| Apr 2005 | Jan 2008 | 144 | 46.9% | -2.3% | +473.6% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 1 | 0.3% | -31.4% | +390.9% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 1 | 5.1% | +1.6% | +431.5% |
| Nov 2008 | Jul 2009 | 36 | 91.0% | +1.4% | +587.0% |
| Oct 2009 | Mar 2010 | 19 | 19.2% | +25.8% | +526.0% |
| Nov 2010 | Dec 2010 | 6 | 1.6% | -7.1% | +457.4% |
| Jan 2011 | Jan 2011 | 2 | 4.2% | +7.0% | +454.7% |
| Feb 2011 | Feb 2011 | 1 | 0.3% | -0.2% | +448.7% |
| May 2011 | Jun 2011 | 7 | 4.8% | -1.2% | +453.4% |
| Aug 2011 | Dec 2011 | 20 | 23.5% | -8.0% | +456.6% |
| Apr 2012 | Jun 2012 | 11 | 10.5% | +39.4% | +481.8% |
| Jul 2012 | Sep 2012 | 7 | 4.6% | +75.1% | +489.1% |
| Sep 2012 | Oct 2012 | 4 | 5.4% | +57.7% | +505.3% |
| Apr 2015 | Nov 2016 | 81 | 60.8% | -34.0% | +336.8% |
| Mar 2017 | Feb 2018 | 49 | 28.4% | +1.7% | +377.9% |
| Mar 2018 | Apr 2018 | 2 | 3.5% | +81.3% | +420.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 34 | 33.6% | +77.2% | +313.9% |
| Average | 26 | — | +12.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OFG below its 200-week moving average?
No. OFG Bancorp (OFG) is currently 32.4% above its 200-week moving average of $35.23. It would need to fall to $35.23 to cross below the line.
What is OFG's 200-week moving average price?
OFG Bancorp's 200-week moving average is $35.23 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when OFG drops below its 200-week moving average?
OFG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +12.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 26 weeks on average.
Is OFG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about OFG as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 74 (overbought). Return on equity is 16.0%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does OFG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in OFG would have grown to $4475, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 12.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. OFG has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does OFG pay a dividend?
Yes. OFG Bancorp currently pays a dividend yield of 272.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19