ODP
The ODP Corporation Consumer Cyclical - Specialty Retail Investor Relations →
The ODP Corporation (ODP) closed at $28.00 as of 2025-12-15, trading 23.8% below its 200-week moving average of $36.76. This places ODP in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -24.0% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 96, ODP is in overbought territory.
Over the past 1911 weeks of data, ODP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times. On average, these episodes lasted 36 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ODP at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +28.3%.
With a market cap of $843 million, ODP is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 21.6%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 0.6%. The stock trades at 1.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 38.5% over the past three years. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 33 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ODP would have grown to $32, compared to $2805 for the S&P 500. ODP has returned -3.4% annualized vs 10.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -51.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: ODP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ODP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying ODP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.0% after 12 months (median +9.0%), compared to +22.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 52% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +27.9% vs +37.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ODP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
ODP has crossed below its 200-week MA 25 times with an average 1-year return of +28.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1990 | Mar 1990 | 7 | 12.7% | +14.5% | +39.1% |
| Jun 1990 | Jul 1990 | 4 | 9.7% | +112.9% | +39.1% |
| Jul 1990 | Nov 1990 | 15 | 19.4% | +93.3% | +43.7% |
| Dec 1990 | Jan 1991 | 3 | 5.9% | +207.1% | +36.9% |
| Dec 1995 | Jan 1996 | 7 | 13.9% | -9.3% | -76.3% |
| Feb 1996 | Apr 1996 | 8 | 6.8% | +5.8% | -75.1% |
| Jun 1996 | Sep 1996 | 12 | 36.4% | -4.6% | -76.3% |
| Sep 1996 | Oct 1996 | 1 | 1.4% | -10.1% | -78.0% |
| Oct 1996 | Nov 1997 | 56 | 42.8% | +1.5% | -76.8% |
| Jan 1998 | Jan 1998 | 1 | 1.1% | +57.4% | -78.2% |
| Sep 1998 | Oct 1998 | 6 | 24.8% | -22.9% | -78.3% |
| Aug 1999 | Oct 2001 | 114 | 60.1% | -55.7% | -79.2% |
| Jul 2002 | Oct 2002 | 14 | 20.2% | +27.8% | -74.9% |
| Jan 2003 | Jan 2003 | 1 | 2.0% | +28.5% | -74.9% |
| Feb 2003 | Apr 2003 | 10 | 14.4% | +47.9% | -72.7% |
| Oct 2004 | Oct 2004 | 1 | 1.3% | +85.5% | -77.8% |
| Jul 2007 | Jan 2013 | 286 | 97.2% | -74.0% | -87.6% |
| Feb 2013 | May 2013 | 13 | 12.0% | +22.1% | -24.1% |
| Jun 2013 | Jul 2013 | 3 | 7.3% | +41.7% | -19.7% |
| Jan 2016 | Mar 2016 | 9 | 6.7% | -5.1% | -35.3% |
| May 2016 | Jul 2017 | 60 | 43.9% | +42.6% | -13.2% |
| Aug 2017 | Nov 2020 | 171 | 62.8% | -27.5% | -26.9% |
| Dec 2020 | Dec 2020 | 1 | 3.4% | +45.9% | +5.4% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 1 | 1.6% | +54.3% | -7.7% |
| May 2024 | Ongoing | 85+ | 67.0% | Ongoing | -31.3% |
| Average | 36 | — | +28.3% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2025-12-15