ODFL
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. Industrials - Trucking Investor Relations →
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) closed at $212.14 as of 2026-07-31, trading 18.2% above its 200-week moving average of $179.43. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 30.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 47, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.83 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1766 weeks of data, ODFL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ODFL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +27.2%.
With a market cap of $44.1 billion, ODFL is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 24.8%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 9.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.4% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ODFL would have grown to $25520, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 17.9% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming ODFL as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 1.4% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ODFL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ODFL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying ODFL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +23.6% after 12 months (median +24.0%), compared to +8.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 71% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +45.1% vs +23.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ODFL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ODFL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ODFL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $195.62 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $210.49 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $227.82 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $248.25 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $272.70 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ODFL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ODFL has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +27.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1992 | Oct 1992 | 1 | 3.1% | +19.4% | +32417.4% |
| May 1993 | Jul 1993 | 11 | 10.5% | +39.1% | +31401.2% |
| Jan 1994 | Feb 1994 | 2 | 4.9% | +2.2% | +29118.5% |
| Feb 1994 | Apr 1994 | 6 | 6.2% | +2.9% | +29118.5% |
| Nov 1994 | Jun 1997 | 137 | 53.0% | -28.0% | +30446.6% |
| Aug 1998 | Oct 1998 | 7 | 21.1% | +13.2% | +37939.2% |
| Oct 1998 | Jul 1999 | 36 | 17.2% | +0.5% | +40221.5% |
| Oct 1999 | Nov 2001 | 112 | 33.0% | -18.6% | +41468.6% |
| Dec 2001 | Dec 2001 | 1 | 3.2% | +132.7% | +43163.5% |
| Sep 2007 | Oct 2007 | 1 | 0.7% | +20.4% | +6130.2% |
| Oct 2007 | Jan 2008 | 14 | 15.8% | +16.8% | +6605.8% |
| Sep 2008 | Apr 2009 | 27 | 30.2% | +27.1% | +6290.2% |
| May 2009 | May 2009 | 1 | 4.8% | +33.2% | +5546.1% |
| Oct 2009 | Dec 2009 | 7 | 14.4% | +44.7% | +5370.3% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 5 | 8.4% | +75.3% | +5154.7% |
| Jan 2016 | Jan 2016 | 2 | 1.8% | +69.7% | +1176.4% |
| Mar 2025 | Jan 2026 | 43 | 21.9% | +12.0% | +31.6% |
| Average | 24 | — | +27.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ODFL below its 200-week moving average?
No. Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) is currently 18.2% above its 200-week moving average of $179.43. It would need to fall to $179.43 to cross below the line.
What is ODFL's 200-week moving average price?
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $179.43 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ODFL drops below its 200-week moving average?
ODFL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +27.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is ODFL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ODFL as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 47. Return on equity is 24.8%. Price-to-book is 9.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ODFL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in ODFL would have grown to $25520, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 17.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. ODFL has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ODFL pay a dividend?
Yes. Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 55.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31