ODFL
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. Industrials - Trucking Investor Relations →
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) closed at $173.00 as of 2026-09-18, trading 4.6% below its 200-week moving average of $181.27. This places ODFL in the below line zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -0.7% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 18, ODFL is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.88 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1773 weeks of data, ODFL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 23 weeks. Historically, investors who bought ODFL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +27.2%.
With a market cap of $36.0 billion, ODFL is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.7%. Return on equity stands at 24.8%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 7.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.4% over the past three years. ODFL passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in ODFL would have grown to $20844, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 17.1% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming ODFL as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 1.4% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: ODFL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After ODFL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying ODFL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +23.6% after 12 months (median +24.0%), compared to +8.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 71% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +45.1% vs +23.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment ODFL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices ODFL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where ODFL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $180.86 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $199.27 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $221.86 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $250.21 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $286.88 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | $1.53 | $1.68 | +9.7% |
| 2026-04-29 | $1.05 | $1.14 | +8.5% |
| 2026-02-04 | $1.06 | $1.09 | +2.8% |
| 2025-10-29 | $1.22 | $1.28 | +5.2% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from ODFL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
ODFL has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +27.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1992 | Oct 1992 | 1 | 3.1% | +19.4% | +26459.1% |
| May 1993 | Jul 1993 | 11 | 10.5% | +39.1% | +25629.1% |
| Jan 1994 | Feb 1994 | 2 | 4.9% | +2.2% | +23764.7% |
| Feb 1994 | Apr 1994 | 6 | 6.2% | +2.9% | +23764.7% |
| Nov 1994 | Jun 1997 | 137 | 53.0% | -28.0% | +24849.4% |
| Aug 1998 | Oct 1998 | 7 | 21.1% | +13.2% | +30969.1% |
| Oct 1998 | Jul 1999 | 36 | 17.2% | +0.5% | +32833.2% |
| Oct 1999 | Nov 2001 | 112 | 33.0% | -18.6% | +33851.8% |
| Dec 2001 | Dec 2001 | 1 | 3.2% | +132.7% | +35236.1% |
| Sep 2007 | Oct 2007 | 1 | 0.7% | +20.4% | +4988.7% |
| Oct 2007 | Jan 2008 | 14 | 15.8% | +16.8% | +5377.1% |
| Sep 2008 | Apr 2009 | 27 | 30.2% | +27.1% | +5119.3% |
| May 2009 | May 2009 | 1 | 4.8% | +33.2% | +4511.5% |
| Oct 2009 | Dec 2009 | 7 | 14.4% | +44.7% | +4367.9% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 5 | 8.4% | +75.3% | +4191.9% |
| Jan 2016 | Jan 2016 | 2 | 1.8% | +69.7% | +942.5% |
| Mar 2025 | Jan 2026 | 43 | 21.9% | +12.0% | +7.5% |
| Sep 2026 | Ongoing | 2+ | 4.6% | Ongoing | -3.8% |
| Average | 23 | — | +27.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ODFL below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) is trading 4.6% below its 200-week moving average of $181.27. The current price is $173.00.
What is ODFL's 200-week moving average price?
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $181.27 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when ODFL drops below its 200-week moving average?
ODFL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +27.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 23 weeks on average.
Is ODFL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about ODFL as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 18 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 2.7%. Return on equity is 24.8%. Price-to-book is 7.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does ODFL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in ODFL would have grown to $20844, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 17.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. ODFL has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does ODFL pay a dividend?
Yes. Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 67.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18