OCFC
OceanFirst Financial Corp. Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
OceanFirst Financial Corp. (OCFC) closed at $17.87 as of 2026-09-18, trading 9.7% above its 200-week moving average of $16.29. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 15.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 46, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.01 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1528 weeks of data, OCFC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought OCFC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +1.7%.
With a market cap of $1727 million, OCFC is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 2.4%. The stock trades at 0.7x book value.
Over the past 29.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in OCFC would have grown to $436, compared to $1424 for the S&P 500. OCFC has returned 5.1% annualized vs 9.5% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -29.8% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: OCFC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After OCFC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 28 historical episodes, buying OCFC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +2.8% after 12 months (median +6.0%), compared to +8.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +9.7% vs +17.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment OCFC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices OCFC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where OCFC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $18.35 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $18.83 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $19.34 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $19.87 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $20.44 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | $0.43 | $0.43 | +0.3% |
| 2026-04-23 | $0.39 | $0.43 | +9.8% |
| 2026-01-22 | $0.37 | $0.41 | +12.3% |
| 2025-10-22 | $0.36 | $0.36 | +1.1% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from OCFC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
OCFC has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +1.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1998 | Dec 1998 | 18 | 18.1% | +24.6% | +404.9% |
| Feb 1999 | Apr 1999 | 10 | 9.5% | +11.0% | +402.9% |
| Mar 2000 | Mar 2000 | 1 | 0.1% | +50.5% | +371.8% |
| Apr 2000 | Apr 2000 | 2 | 2.2% | +51.5% | +381.6% |
| Apr 2005 | Apr 2005 | 2 | 2.8% | +13.8% | +95.3% |
| Jun 2006 | Oct 2006 | 18 | 5.2% | -15.1% | +78.0% |
| Nov 2006 | Dec 2006 | 1 | 1.7% | -20.2% | +75.0% |
| Jan 2007 | Jan 2007 | 1 | 4.1% | -21.8% | +78.3% |
| Feb 2007 | May 2008 | 64 | 28.8% | -23.0% | +70.5% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 4 | 4.4% | -33.8% | +82.8% |
| Jul 2008 | Jan 2011 | 127 | 56.6% | -28.0% | +93.8% |
| Jun 2011 | Jun 2011 | 1 | 2.3% | +20.3% | +144.0% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 10 | 10.0% | +21.2% | +154.1% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 3.4% | +11.0% | +149.4% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 0.3% | +17.9% | +9.3% |
| Aug 2019 | Oct 2019 | 10 | 11.4% | -23.9% | +6.0% |
| Jan 2020 | Mar 2021 | 57 | 44.2% | -18.8% | +1.9% |
| Jun 2021 | Aug 2021 | 7 | 10.9% | -4.4% | +10.0% |
| Aug 2021 | Sep 2021 | 6 | 4.2% | +3.3% | +4.9% |
| Nov 2021 | Dec 2021 | 1 | 0.1% | +15.8% | +5.3% |
| Mar 2022 | Jul 2022 | 17 | 9.0% | -3.7% | +10.0% |
| Aug 2022 | Sep 2022 | 1 | 2.0% | -6.0% | +11.6% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 3 | 4.8% | -21.7% | +10.0% |
| Mar 2023 | Jul 2023 | 19 | 31.2% | -15.4% | +12.8% |
| Aug 2023 | Aug 2024 | 53 | 31.4% | +0.3% | +18.6% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 1 | 2.0% | +12.4% | +14.3% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 14 | 13.7% | +7.4% | +12.1% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 2 | 3.1% | +23.4% | +15.4% |
| Average | 16 | — | +1.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OCFC below its 200-week moving average?
No. OceanFirst Financial Corp. (OCFC) is currently 9.7% above its 200-week moving average of $16.29. It would need to fall to $16.29 to cross below the line.
What is OCFC's 200-week moving average price?
OceanFirst Financial Corp.'s 200-week moving average is $16.29 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when OCFC drops below its 200-week moving average?
OCFC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +1.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is OCFC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about OCFC as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 46. Return on equity is 2.4%. Price-to-book is 0.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does OCFC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 29.3 years, $100 invested in OCFC would have grown to $436, compared to $1424 for the S&P 500. That's 5.1% annualized vs 9.5% for the index. OCFC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does OCFC pay a dividend?
Yes. OceanFirst Financial Corp. currently pays a dividend yield of 448.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18