OC
Owens Corning Industrials - Building Products & Equipment Investor Relations →
Owens Corning (OC) closed at $123.90 as of 2026-09-18, trading 7.6% below its 200-week moving average of $134.11. This places OC in the deep value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -1.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 52, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.43 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 989 weeks of data, OC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times. On average, these episodes lasted 17 weeks. Historically, investors who bought OC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +23.6%.
With a market cap of $9.8 billion, OC is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 8.9%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at -9.5%. The stock trades at 2.6x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 12.7% over the past three years.
Over the past 19 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in OC would have grown to $672, compared to $697 for the S&P 500. OC has returned 10.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -9.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: OC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After OC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying OC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +23.9% after 12 months (median +26.0%), compared to +8.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 89% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +45.4% vs +24.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment OC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices OC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where OC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $123.64 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $140.49 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $162.66 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $193.12 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $237.64 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $3.10 | $3.93 | +26.9% |
| 2026-05-06 | $0.96 | $1.22 | +26.5% |
| 2026-02-25 | $1.36 | $1.10 | -18.8% |
| 2025-11-05 | $3.72 | $3.67 | -1.2% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from OC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
OC has crossed below its 200-week MA 13 times with an average 1-year return of +23.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2007 | Sep 2009 | 100 | 77.8% | -22.4% | +501.7% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 2 | 8.5% | +18.3% | +606.7% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 1 | 1.7% | +22.3% | +586.6% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 3 | 10.5% | +60.5% | +582.9% |
| Jul 2014 | Aug 2014 | 3 | 2.0% | +33.3% | +339.6% |
| Sep 2014 | Dec 2014 | 15 | 16.1% | +38.1% | +347.2% |
| Sep 2018 | Jun 2019 | 39 | 23.7% | +17.3% | +162.0% |
| Jul 2019 | Sep 2019 | 9 | 5.8% | -0.2% | +149.2% |
| Feb 2020 | Jul 2020 | 20 | 47.5% | +45.6% | +145.5% |
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2025 | 2 | 0.3% | N/A | +0.5% |
| Nov 2025 | Feb 2026 | 13 | 19.8% | N/A | +21.3% |
| Feb 2026 | Jun 2026 | 17 | 22.0% | N/A | +2.8% |
| Sep 2026 | Ongoing | 2+ | 7.6% | Ongoing | -6.1% |
| Average | 17 | — | +23.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OC below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Owens Corning (OC) is trading 7.6% below its 200-week moving average of $134.11. The current price is $123.90.
What is OC's 200-week moving average price?
Owens Corning's 200-week moving average is $134.11 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when OC drops below its 200-week moving average?
OC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 13 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +23.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 17 weeks on average.
Is OC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about OC as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 52. Free cash flow yield is 8.9%. Return on equity is -9.5%. Price-to-book is 2.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does OC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 19 years, $100 invested in OC would have grown to $672, compared to $697 for the S&P 500. That's 10.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. OC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does OC pay a dividend?
Yes. Owens Corning currently pays a dividend yield of 255.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18