OBT
Orange County Bancorp, Inc. Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
Orange County Bancorp, Inc. (OBT) closed at $38.25 as of 2026-07-31, trading 52.7% above its 200-week moving average of $25.05. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 51.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 63, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.89 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1141 weeks of data, OBT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times. On average, these episodes lasted 26 weeks. Historically, investors who bought OBT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.5%.
With a market cap of $513 million, OBT is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 16.9%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.8x book value.
Share count has increased 18.5% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 21.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in OBT would have grown to $516, compared to $998 for the S&P 500. OBT has returned 7.8% annualized vs 11.1% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 12.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: OBT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After OBT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 11 historical episodes, buying OBT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +7.0% after 12 months (median -1.0%), compared to +17.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 45% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +8.2% vs +17.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment OBT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices OBT would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where OBT's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $32.09 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $33.81 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $35.71 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $37.85 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $40.25 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from OBT's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
OBT has crossed below its 200-week MA 11 times with an average 1-year return of +11.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2006 | Jul 2006 | 5 | 0.9% | -8.1% | +403.9% |
| Jul 2006 | Jul 2006 | 1 | 4.7% | -4.0% | +426.6% |
| Aug 2006 | Aug 2006 | 1 | 2.8% | -11.8% | +416.3% |
| Sep 2006 | Oct 2006 | 1 | 0.9% | -11.5% | +406.3% |
| Oct 2006 | Nov 2007 | 58 | 13.2% | -3.8% | +406.3% |
| Dec 2007 | May 2011 | 180 | 27.5% | -12.5% | +426.6% |
| Dec 2011 | Dec 2011 | 1 | 0.1% | +10.0% | +510.2% |
| Jan 2012 | Feb 2012 | 1 | 0.2% | +9.2% | +513.4% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 36 | 13.1% | +26.9% | +252.5% |
| May 2023 | Jun 2023 | 5 | 5.0% | +64.6% | +154.2% |
| Apr 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 0.7% | +67.0% | +84.2% |
| Average | 26 | — | +11.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OBT below its 200-week moving average?
No. Orange County Bancorp, Inc. (OBT) is currently 52.7% above its 200-week moving average of $25.05. It would need to fall to $25.05 to cross below the line.
What is OBT's 200-week moving average price?
Orange County Bancorp, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $25.05 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when OBT drops below its 200-week moving average?
OBT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +11.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 26 weeks on average.
Is OBT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about OBT as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 63. Return on equity is 16.9%. Price-to-book is 1.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does OBT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 21.9 years, $100 invested in OBT would have grown to $516, compared to $998 for the S&P 500. That's 7.8% annualized vs 11.1% for the index. OBT has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does OBT pay a dividend?
Yes. Orange County Bancorp, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 175.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31