OBT
Orange County Bancorp, Inc. Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
Orange County Bancorp, Inc. (OBT) closed at $37.23 as of 2026-06-19, trading 52.4% above its 200-week moving average of $24.44. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 50.9% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 73, OBT is in overbought territory.
A big jump in activity this week — 2.2x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 1135 weeks of data, OBT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 29 weeks. Historically, investors who bought OBT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.6%.
With a market cap of $499 million, OBT is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 17.9%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.7x book value.
Share count has increased 18.5% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 21.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in OBT would have grown to $502, compared to $1002 for the S&P 500. OBT has returned 7.7% annualized vs 11.1% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 12.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: OBT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After OBT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying OBT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +7.0% after 12 months (median -1.0%), compared to +17.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 40% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +7.9% vs +13.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment OBT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices OBT would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where OBT's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $31.77 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $33.51 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $35.46 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $37.64 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $40.12 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from OBT's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
OBT has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +11.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2006 | Jul 2006 | 5 | 0.9% | -8.1% | +390.5% |
| Jul 2006 | Jul 2006 | 1 | 4.7% | -4.0% | +412.6% |
| Aug 2006 | Aug 2006 | 1 | 2.8% | -11.8% | +402.5% |
| Sep 2006 | Oct 2006 | 1 | 0.9% | -11.5% | +392.8% |
| Oct 2006 | Nov 2007 | 58 | 13.2% | -3.8% | +392.8% |
| Dec 2007 | Jun 2011 | 181 | 27.5% | -12.5% | +412.6% |
| Jan 2012 | Feb 2012 | 1 | 0.1% | +9.2% | +497.1% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 36 | 13.0% | +26.9% | +243.1% |
| May 2023 | Jun 2023 | 5 | 4.9% | +64.6% | +147.4% |
| Apr 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 0.7% | +67.0% | +79.3% |
| Average | 29 | — | +11.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OBT below its 200-week moving average?
No. Orange County Bancorp, Inc. (OBT) is currently 52.4% above its 200-week moving average of $24.44. It would need to fall to $24.44 to cross below the line.
What is OBT's 200-week moving average price?
Orange County Bancorp, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $24.44 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when OBT drops below its 200-week moving average?
OBT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +11.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 29 weeks on average.
Is OBT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about OBT as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 73 (overbought). Return on equity is 17.9%. Price-to-book is 1.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does OBT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 21.8 years, $100 invested in OBT would have grown to $502, compared to $1002 for the S&P 500. That's 7.7% annualized vs 11.1% for the index. OBT has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19