OBDC
Blue Owl Capital Corporation Financial Services - BDC Investor Relations →
Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) closed at $11.08 as of 2026-09-11, trading 0.1% above its 200-week moving average of $11.07. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 3.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 56, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.17 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 325 weeks of data, OBDC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times. On average, these episodes lasted 6 weeks. Historically, investors who bought OBDC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +31.8%.
With a market cap of $5.5 billion, OBDC is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 8.8%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 3.9%. The stock trades at 0.8x book value.
Share count has increased 27.3% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 6.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in OBDC would have grown to $175, compared to $269 for the S&P 500. OBDC has returned 9.2% annualized vs 16.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 11 open-market purchases totaling $1,806,282. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 100.1% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: OBDC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After OBDC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 8 historical episodes, buying OBDC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +33.4% after 12 months (median +32.0%), compared to +27.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +46.8% vs +40.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment OBDC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices OBDC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where OBDC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $10.53 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $10.85 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $11.20 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $11.56 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $11.95 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $0.32 | $0.36 | +10.9% |
| 2026-05-06 | $0.35 | $0.32 | -8.1% |
| 2026-02-18 | $0.36 | $0.37 | +4.3% |
| 2025-11-05 | $0.39 | $0.37 | -5.7% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from OBDC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
OBDC has crossed below its 200-week MA 8 times with an average 1-year return of +31.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2020 | Nov 2020 | 20 | 15.1% | +32.0% | +77.1% |
| Dec 2020 | Jan 2021 | 5 | 3.1% | +22.9% | +62.4% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 0.7% | +24.9% | +45.9% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 6 | 12.8% | +35.7% | +53.6% |
| Dec 2022 | Dec 2022 | 1 | 0.7% | +43.7% | +45.3% |
| Feb 2026 | Apr 2026 | 7 | 5.0% | N/A | +4.7% |
| May 2026 | Jul 2026 | 7 | 3.4% | N/A | +3.5% |
| Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | 2 | 2.0% | N/A | +3.1% |
| Average | 6 | — | +31.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OBDC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) is currently 0.1% above its 200-week moving average of $11.07. It would need to fall to $11.07 to cross below the line.
What is OBDC's 200-week moving average price?
Blue Owl Capital Corporation's 200-week moving average is $11.07 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when OBDC drops below its 200-week moving average?
OBDC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +31.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 6 weeks on average.
Is OBDC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about OBDC as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 56. Free cash flow yield is 8.8%. Return on equity is 3.9%. Price-to-book is 0.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does OBDC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 6.3 years, $100 invested in OBDC would have grown to $175, compared to $269 for the S&P 500. That's 9.2% annualized vs 16.9% for the index. OBDC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does OBDC pay a dividend?
Yes. Blue Owl Capital Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 1121.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11